What About the Predictive Power of the Fed? As former Fed policymaker Narayana Kocherlakota said in 2016: “Don’t rely on FOMC forecasts of future fed funds rates.” Why? Because the economy is often shaken by crises and does not evolve as expected. Image: Hedgeye Risk Management LLC
The Credit Cycle Is Leading the Economic Cycle This great chart shows that an economic slowdows risk is rising. When delinquency rates on consumer loans reach a low, there’s a high probability of a recession on the horizon. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research
Higher Tariffs on U.S.-China Trade Could Hurt World GDP This chart shows the impact and uncertainty by 2021-2022 from maintaining 25% tariffs and more. Image: Bloomberg
Which Equity Market Has Outperformed Since the Beginning of the Trade War? The US equity market is the winner the last two years. Most other major equity markets have experienced significant declines. Image: Fundstrat
Short Interest on the Largest S&P 500 ETF Is at the Highest Since 2015 Keep in mind that the S&P 500 Index is only 5% away from its all-time high. Image: Bloomberg
US Equity Market Sentiment and Relative ETF Flows Since 2018 This chart shows the correlation between US equity market sentiment and relative ETF flows recently. Inflow to US equity type ETF has picked up recently. Image: Nomura
150 Years of U.S. Employment History Since 1850 The chart shows the share of U.S. employment in each sector between 1850 and 2015. Image: Visual Capitalism
S&P 500 Futures – Massive Pre-market Fear Since 1982 Since 1982, there have been two time periods of this massive pre-market fear: in 2002 and 2008, during the bear market. Image: Sentimentrader
U.S. Credit Card Charge-Off Rates Since 2007 This chart shows that small banks accept high credit risks, while large banks reject high credit risks. You may also like “Why the US Banking System Is Divided in Two Groups?“
Germany: GDP Growth Composition Since 2013 In 2019Q1, there is a slight rebound in the German economy but the outlook remains gloomy. Image: Oxford Economics
International Liquidity by Country – Total Reserves Excluding Gold, U.S. Dollars USA holds $115 billion and China holds over $3 trillion in reserves. Image: howmuch.net