Global Gold Reserves vs. Global Dollar Reserves Amid rising geopolitical tensions and a shifting global financial landscape, central banks worldwide are increasingly favoring gold over the U.S. dollar as a reserve asset. Image: Blomberg
S&P 500 Performance After a Negative Q1 and Then a >10% Q2 The 2025 market exhibits a favorable pattern: a negative Q1 followed by a strong Q2 rebound of over 10%. Historically, Q3 has consistently risen by an average of 7.7%, and the rest of the year has seen an average increase of 15.9%. Image:…
Average Annual Inflation of 152 Countries Since 1971 The post-Bretton Woods monetary system features greater inflation variability and generally higher average inflation, making it difficult for countries to keep inflation consistently below 2% over the long term. Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 / WTI Spot Price, Detrended The roughly 30-year cycle in the relationship between U.S. stock market returns and oil prices highlights periods when stocks are either expensive or cheap relative to oil. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Sentiment Indicator – Investor Equity Positions Hedge funds are currently more bullish on the market compared to other investor categories, which remain cautious and have not significantly increased their market participation. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Bottom-Up Consensus S&P 500 EPS Estimates Bottom-up consensus estimates show S&P 500 EPS growth slowing to 4% year-over-year in Q2 2025, highlighting a cautious earnings environment amid ongoing revisions and sector challenges. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Average Cumulative S&P 500 Total Returns – Invest on Any Day vs. Invest at a New High While many are skeptical about investing at all-time highs, evidence suggests it often leads to stronger forward returns compared to investing at random days. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Implied Probability of the S&P 500 Rising over the Next Six Months with a Cutoff Set at 75% JPMorgan’s AI-enhanced forecasting model indicates a 96% probability that U.S. stocks will rise over the next six months, giving investors a data-driven reason for optimism about the market outlook. Image: J.P. Morgan Flows and Liquidity
The Link To Oil Oil consumption is deeply embedded in nearly every facet of modern life, from the food we eat to the products and services we purchase. This widespread use makes oil demand a strong indicator of economic strength or weakness. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Win Streaks the Month of July For 10 straight years, the S&P 500 has gained in July—an impressive record. Historically, July is the best month for stocks in post-election years. Another gain this July would tie the longest winning streak for the month. Image: Carson Investment Research
U.S. Households’ (Incl. Hedge Fund) Asset Allocation U.S. households are currently heavily overweight in equities relative to fixed income, reflecting strong conviction in U.S. equity markets despite ongoing economic uncertainties and cautious positioning in bonds. Image: Deutsche Bank