Does Berkshire Hathaway Still Have a Market-Beating Advantage Over the Long Run? We can ask ourselves if Berkshire Hathaway does still have a market-beating advantage over the long run, because Warren Buffett expects a very modest outperformance vs. the market over the next decade. But he can’t guarantee that, of course. Image: Financial Times
Can History Help Us Predict the Future of the S&P 500? When the S&P 500 hits all-time high and AAII Investor Sentiment Survey bulls is below 35%, then 88% of the time the S&P 500 is positive one year later (1986-2019). Image: SentimenTrader
Why Is the Dollar So Strong? There are several reasons for this: – Interest rates differential – Strong American economy and no immediate recession– American geopolitical dominance– Market shadow over Donald Trump’s re-election Image: The Daily Shot
Ken Fisher: ‘Third year of a president’s term is positive’ “…because political risk aversion falls as you get to increase gridlock which happends in every midterm election.” Billionaire Ken Fisher thinks there is room to run for the stock market this year. But don’t try to time the market and keep your investment strategy simple.
What Will Cause The Next Recession – Paul Krugman On UBI And More Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman speaks about the next recession, income inequality vs. growth, wages, universal basic income (UBI), redistribution and geographic inequality. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ja2PY2CnpOQ
The S&P 500 Hits All-Time High, After 6 Months Without A Record High. So, What Now? Can history help us to predict the future? Here’s a bullish case: the S&P 500 has been higher 17 out of 18 times a year later, since 1954. Source: LPL Research
What Recession? The S&P 500 Hits All-Time High …but many of the world’s major indexes are still a long way from their all-time closing highs. Image: Bloomberg
Why Potential GDP Has Been Cut in Half Since the 1950’s? The main reason is a lower productivity than previous business cycles, due to: – lower population growth – the service sector is growing faster than the industry sector – lower quality jobs in the service sector have a lower productivity than in the industrial…
Despite Full Employment, Why Real GDP Should Stay Above Potential GDP? Because monetary and fiscal policies continue to support growth in the USA. So, real GDP could remain close to potential GDP. It also suggests a recession is probably not imminent.
What Are the Advantages of a Geographically Diversified Portfolio? A geographically diversified portfolio may minimize drawdowns and the amount earned from compounding may grow faster over time. Image: Bridgewater Associates, LP
“Rule No. 1: Never lose money…” – Warren Buffett Quote of the day: “Rule No. 1: Never lose money. Rule No. 2: Never forget rule No. 1.” — Warren Buffett