Two-day Performance for the S&P 500 The two-day decline of 10.5% in the S&P 500 last Thursday and Friday marked its fifth-worst drop since World War II. The turmoil is likely to persist as long as there are no concrete signs of tariff reductions or de-escalation in trade tensions. Image: Deutche Bank
S&P 500 10% Drop in Two Days A 10% drop in the S&P 500 over two days is unusual, but history shows that sharp declines are often followed by strong recoveries, giving investors reason for optimism. Image: Carson Investment Research
Earnings – Peak to Trough Decline in LTM S&P 500 EPS During Recessions Historically, recessions since World War II have caused a median 13% decline in S&P 500 EPS, often leading to substantial index losses. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day The “Liberation Day” effect has set equity markets free—free to plummet, that is! Have a Great Week, Everyone! 😎
Impact on U.S. YoY Real GDP Growth Goldman Sachs has cut its 2025 Q4/Q4 GDP growth forecast to 0.5% and raised its 12-month recession probability from 35% to 45%, citing tighter financial conditions, foreign consumer boycotts, and heightened policy uncertainty. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Large U.S. Tax Hikes Trump’s tariffs represent the most significant U.S. tax increase since 1968, raising widespread concerns about their long-term effects on the economy. Image: J.P. Morgan
ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day As the S&P 500 tumbles 9.08% this week, bears are popping champagne, and bulls are asking, “Is there even a floor anymore?” Have a Great Weekend, Everyone! 😎
ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day As bears heard Trump’s tariffs were going to cause a bear market, bulls suddenly came down with a case of stagflation! Happy Friday, Everyone! 😎
EPS Revisions Typically, positive revisions in EPS increase stock market value and attract more investors, while negative revisions usually apply downward pressure on stock prices. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
VIX Futures Curve Market participants are anticipating a potential decline in volatility, reflecting hopes for reduced uncertainty and stabilization of trade-related concerns impacting markets. Image: The Daily Shot
NBER Recession Dating vs. Market Realization Historically, the S&P 500 peaks and declines 6–16 months before the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) officially declares a U.S. recession, making it a reliable leading indicator. Image: Real Investment Advice