Russell 2000 vs. S&P 500 – Annualized Average Monthly Return
Russell 2000 vs. S&P 500 – Annualized Average Monthly Return Small cap stocks tend to underperfom the S&P 500 when growth slows. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Global EPS Consensus Forecast
Global EPS Consensus Forecast Global EPS growth estimates for 2022 are falling. Will global stocks follow? Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Revision to Consensus S&P 500 3Q EPS
Revision to Consensus S&P 500 3Q EPS EPS growth has peaked. Will U.S. stocks continue do well? Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
Oil – Brent Future Prices
Oil – Brent Future Prices Oil prices are back to pre-covid levels. Will pro-cyclical stocks outperform, driven by strong global economic growth in 2021 and 2022? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 vs. Global Money Supply
S&P 500 vs. Global Money Supply More global stimulus could be bullish for stocks, as global money supply growth tends to push U.S. equities higher. Image: Fidelity Investments
Correlation of 12-Month Relative Returns vs. MSCI with Changes in U.S. Yields
Correlation of 12-Month Relative Returns vs. MSCI with Changes in U.S. Yields Is it time to shift back to value stocks? U.S. real yields are critical for the growth to value shift. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Global Money Supply and MSCI World Index
Global Money Supply and MSCI World Index Global equities are around 1 standard devation vs. global money supply. It could be bullish for stocks, as global money supply growth tends to push equities higher. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
Top 5 vs. S&P 500 ex-Top 5 – YoY Contribution of EPS and P/E to Returns
Top 5 vs. S&P 500 ex-Top 5 – YoY Contribution of EPS and P/E to Returns The performance gap could widen further, as the top 5 largest stocks in the S&P 500 are superior on almost every financial metric (revenue, profit growth, margin structure, volatility and corporate leverage). Image: Credit Suisse Research
Money Supply to GDP vs. Equities and Bonds
Money Supply to GDP vs. Equities and Bonds Historically, when money supply exceeds nominal GDP growth, it tends to be bullish for stocks and bonds. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Average Performance by S&P 500 Quality Ranks when the Profits Cycle Decelerated
Average Performance by S&P 500 Quality Ranks when the Profits Cycle Decelerated Historically, high quality stocks (A+) have outperformed when the profits cycle decelerates, as investors tend to pay up for stable earnings growth. Image: BofA US Equity and Quant Strategy