U.S. Dollar vs. Gold – Share in Global Reserves As countries and central banks seek to reduce their reliance on the U.S. dollar for reserves and international trade, gold has emerged as the preferred alternative asset. Image: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research
Gold Reserves As % of Total Holdings Emerging market central banks continue to hold significantly less gold than their developed counterparts, suggesting a potential for increased future allocations that could provide sustained support for gold prices. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Reserves in Different Currencies While the USD share of global FX reserves has slipped somewhat, it remains close to 60% and continues to be the leading global reserve currency by a wide margin. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. 10Y-2Y Yield Curve and Fed Balance Sheet Total Reserves What is the risk of tapering? After Dec-13 tapering, the U.S. Treasury yield curve flattened considerably. Image: Deutsche Bank
Central Bank Balance Sheets as % of GDP The Federal Reserve appears as the central bank with the highest room to increase its balance sheet. Image: Deutsche Bank
China – Required Reserve Ratio vs. M1 Money Supply Growth The People’s Bank of China slashed the reserve requirement ratio for most financial institutions, but M1 money supply growth is currently near the lowest. This is not good news for GDP growth. Image: Jeroen Blokland
Total Allocated Exchange Reserves by Currency The U.S. dollar represents 61% of all central bank foreign reserves. And the total value of all currencies held in foreign exchange reserves is almost $11 trillion. Image: howmuch.net
Fed Balance Sheet The ongoing reduction of the Fed’s balance sheet is expected to reduce bank reserves. This reduction may lead to higher inflation, increased real yields, and a steeper yield curve. Image: TS Lombard
New York Fed GDP Nowcast The New York Fed’s Q3 2025 GDP Nowcast was revised downward to 1.78% from 1.92% last week, suggesting slower economic growth ahead. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Click the Image to Enlarge
Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of U.S. recession in 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, stands at 25.6% in June. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs stand at -3.19% YoY in June. The relationship between Temporary Help Services jobs and the macroeconomy is complex. Declines in Temporary Help Services Jobs are often considered a leading indicator of a potential recession (red line at -3.5%), but they do…