Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of U.S. recession in 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, stands at 25.6% in June. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs stand at -5.12% YoY in May. The relationship between Temporary Help Services jobs and the macroeconomy is complex. Declines in Temporary Help Services Jobs are often considered a leading indicator of a potential recession (red line at -3.5%), but they do…
Annual Change in Gold Demand Central banks’ gold demand has grown by 11.5% annually since 2019, fueling the current price rally as they aim to diversify reserves. While gold excels as a crisis hedge, it hasn’t consistently delivered long-term alpha for investors. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Physical Gold Held by all Gold ETFs Globally While central banks are increasing their gold reserves as a hedge against economic uncertainty and currency risks, global gold ETFs continue to see a decline in investor interest. Image: J.P. Morgan
U.S. M2 to Nominal GDP Ratio The return of the U.S. M2 to nominal GDP ratio to its long-term trend is a positive indicator. It reflects a healthier balance between money supply and economic output, fostering stability and sustainable growth in the economy. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
U.S. Money Market Funds Following the Fed’s first rate cut, U.S. money market funds typically experience outflows within 12 months as investors rebalance portfolios and reassess risk in response to changing interest rates and market conditions. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Inflation – U.S. Core PCE Deflator The recent stalling of disinflationary progress in U.S. core PCE deflator could complicate the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions. Image: Deutsche Bank
Buybacks – S&P 500 Cash as % of Total Asset As S&P 500 companies’ cash reserves decline, Bank of America expects buybacks to peak soon. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
Wage Growth vs. U.S. Home Price Growth The widening gap between U.S. home prices and wage growth has significant implications for housing affordability and economic inequality, making it harder for lower-income individuals and families to afford homes. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Fed – Number of Policy Rate Adjustments Throughout history, the Federal Reserve has made decisions that are not influenced by the election cycle, as the central bank’s actions are predominantly guided by economic indicators and its dual mandate. Image: BofA Global Research
U.S. Unemployment Rate Forecast According to Deutsche Bank, a mild recession in the United States may result in a modestly higher unemployment rate than what is anticipated by both consensus and the Federal Reserve. Image: Deutsche Bank