MSCI AC World Calendar Year Returns vs. Intra-Year Declines Despite median intra-year drops of 15%, the global equity index ended positively in 34 of the past 45 years—highlighting the value of long-term investing over reacting to short-term volatility. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day February’s CPI inflation drops to 2.8%, beating the 2.9% forecast. On CPI days, bulls are like kids in a candy store, while bears sit in the corner, sulking like they forgot their party hats! Happy Great Day, Everyone! 😎
FMS Investors – What Do You Think Is the Most Likely Reason for the Fed to “Pause” or “Pivot”? Will the Fed pause if U.S. inflation (PCE deflator) drops below 4%? Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey
S&P 500 “Fair Values” According to ISM Levels If the ISM drops to 50 by the end of 2021, the “fair value” of the S&P 500 would be 3730. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
Median S&P 500 Trajectory After Declines in the VIX to Below 20 S&P 500 returns tend to accelerate when the VIX drops below 20 level. Image: Nomura
U.S. Unemployment Rate Continues Recovery U.S. unemployment rate drops to 7.9%, but job growth slowed in September. Image: BofA
Fear & Greed Index The Fear & Greed Index drops to extreme fear levels. Is this a market bottom signal? Image: Cable News Network
University of Michigan Current Economic Conditions Index and Recessions This chart shows that historical drops of more than -20 points in consumer confidence current conditions have signaled recessions since 1979. The current drop stands at -15.9 points. Image: Knowledge Leaders Capital
S&P 500 Index – Number of 5% Corrections Per Year Since 1990, there has been an average of 3.3 separate 5% declines for the S&P 500 per year. In a late business cycle, volatility increases. This is why, in 2019, we could see several drops of 5%. Image: LPL Research