U.S. Economic Policy Uncertainty Index and Consumption Growth Forecast Goldman Sachs economists’ model forecasts solid consumption growth above trend in 2020, despite policy uncertainty. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
European Economic Slowdown – Real GDP Growth 2018Q4 Is Europe’s slowdown severe? Well, this great chart shows real GDP growth in 2018Q4. Image: European Economic Snapshot
Consensus EPS Growth Estimates Despite ongoing economic uncertainties, consensus estimates still forecast a solid 7% rise in S&P 500 earnings per share for 2025, reflecting the resilience of the corporate sector. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Citi Economic Surprise Index vs. 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Economic momentum-reflected in growth data and surprises relative to forecasts-continues to be the main force driving U.S. Treasury yields. Image: Paulsen Perspectives
Wage Growth vs. Fed Funds Rate When wage growth lags behind the fed funds rate, it is interpreted as a sign that monetary policy is restrictive, as borrowing costs exceed the pace of income growth, potentially dampening consumer spending and economic activity. Image: Yahoo Finance
Global Economy – GDP Growth Projections The International Monetary Fund projects global economic growth of 2.8% in 2025 and 3.0% in 2026, reflecting a subdued outlook shaped by persistent trade tensions and high policy uncertainty. Image: International Monetary Fund
Contributions to Annualized U.S. PCE Growth The U.S. stock market’s recent underperformance is expected to reduce the wealth effect, turning it from a boost to a drag on consumption and increasing the risk of a broader economic slowdown as consumer spending weakens. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Consensus Estimated Margin Growth Slower economic growth and rising costs are expected to lead to a decline in S&P 500 margin estimates later this year. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Annual U.S. Payroll Employment Growth in the Month Before Each Post-War Recession The recent slowdown in U.S. job creation is concerning, as it nears levels typically seen before economic downturns. Image: Paulsen Perspectives
Cumulative Effect of AI Adoption on Productivity Growth The global adoption of AI is expected to significantly boost labor productivity and drive economic growth, potentially leading to substantial increases in GDP. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
YoY Earnings Growth and Average Outperformance of Beats Despite strong U.S. corporate performance in the current earnings season, investor enthusiasm and market reactions are tempered by underlying concerns about tariffs, interest rates, and economic uncertainty. Image: Bloomberg