U.S. Economic Policy Uncertainty Index and Consumption Growth Forecast Goldman Sachs economists’ model forecasts solid consumption growth above trend in 2020, despite policy uncertainty. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
European Economic Slowdown – Real GDP Growth 2018Q4 Is Europe’s slowdown severe? Well, this great chart shows real GDP growth in 2018Q4. Image: European Economic Snapshot
YoY Earnings Growth and Average Outperformance of Beats Despite strong U.S. corporate performance in the current earnings season, investor enthusiasm and market reactions are tempered by underlying concerns about tariffs, interest rates, and economic uncertainty. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 Quarterly YoY EPS Growth Relative to Consensus Expectations Recent years have seen S&P 500 earnings growth consistently exceed expectations, reflecting strong corporate performance and favorable economic conditions, which have kept analysts optimistic about future growth. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Global Economy – GDP Growth Projections The International Monetary Fund projects global economic growth of 3.3% for both 2025 and 2026, suggesting economic resilience despite ongoing challenges. Image: International Monetary Fund
U.S. Equity EPS Growth Expectations U.S. equity EPS growth expectations are particularly strong, with analysts projecting double-digit growth in both 2025 and 2026, driven by economic expansion and technological advancements. Image: TS Lombard
U.S. Economic Surprise Index A rising U.S. Economic Surprise Index is often associated with positive equity performance due to enhanced investor sentiment and expectations of continued economic growth. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
China – Nominal GDP Growth vs. 10-Year Government Bond Yield The persistent drop in bond yields is often seen as a sign of increasing investor caution regarding economic growth, which does not bode well for China’s nominal GDP growth moving forward. Image: Alpine Macro
S&P 500 Fwd. Earnings Growth and Russell 2000 Fwd. Earnings Growth The recovery in EPS growth has been driven by a small number of large-cap companies, which may indicate a late-cycle extension in the economic cycle. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
U.S. Economic Forecasts Deutsche Bank’s baseline forecast depicts a U.S. economy maintaining robust growth, with inflation gradually approaching the Fed’s 2% target and unemployment declining by the end of 2026. Image: Deutsche Bank
Markets – Cumulative S&P 500 Growth vs. Cumulative Real GDP Growth vs. Cumulative S&P Sales Growth The growing disconnect between the U.S. stock market and real economy raises concerns about economic inequality, financial stability, policy challenges and sustainable growth. Image: Real Investment Advice