U.S. Economic Surprise Index A rising U.S. Economic Surprise Index is often associated with positive equity performance due to enhanced investor sentiment and expectations of continued economic growth. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
China – Nominal GDP Growth vs. 10-Year Government Bond Yield The persistent drop in bond yields is often seen as a sign of increasing investor caution regarding economic growth, which does not bode well for China’s nominal GDP growth moving forward. Image: Alpine Macro
S&P 500 Fwd. Earnings Growth and Russell 2000 Fwd. Earnings Growth The recovery in EPS growth has been driven by a small number of large-cap companies, which may indicate a late-cycle extension in the economic cycle. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
U.S. Economic Forecasts Deutsche Bank’s baseline forecast depicts a U.S. economy maintaining robust growth, with inflation gradually approaching the Fed’s 2% target and unemployment declining by the end of 2026. Image: Deutsche Bank
Markets – Cumulative S&P 500 Growth vs. Cumulative Real GDP Growth vs. Cumulative S&P Sales Growth The growing disconnect between the U.S. stock market and real economy raises concerns about economic inequality, financial stability, policy challenges and sustainable growth. Image: Real Investment Advice
China GDP Growth Consensus Estimates GDP upgrades are likely to spur interest in China’s markets, encouraging asset allocation towards sectors that align with the country’s economic transformation. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
GDP Growth Revision The U.S. economy demonstrates resilience and promising growth outlook, in contrast to the EU and China, which face slower recoveries and economic challenges. Image: Deutsche Bank
Performance – Large Cap Growth vs. Small Cap Value Large-cap growth stocks are outperforming small-cap value stocks at a level not seen since the dot-com bubble era. Historical patterns and the potential for economic recovery indicate that this trend may change in the long term. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Wage Growth vs. U.S. Home Price Growth The widening gap between U.S. home prices and wage growth has significant implications for housing affordability and economic inequality, making it harder for lower-income individuals and families to afford homes. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and U.S. GDP Growth The large gap that currently exists between the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and U.S. real GDP will eventually close, as economic indicators tend to align over time. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Modeled Forward Russell 2000 Returns Conditional on Coincident Real U.S. GDP Growth The performance of small-cap stocks is linked to economic conditions. Weak U.S. economic growth may affect their returns, while strong growth offers potential for solid returns. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research