Annual U.S. Payroll Employment Growth in the Month Before Each Post-War Recession The recent slowdown in U.S. job creation is concerning, as it nears levels typically seen before economic downturns. Image: Paulsen Perspectives
Cumulative Effect of AI Adoption on Productivity Growth The global adoption of AI is expected to significantly boost labor productivity and drive economic growth, potentially leading to substantial increases in GDP. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
YoY Earnings Growth and Average Outperformance of Beats Despite strong U.S. corporate performance in the current earnings season, investor enthusiasm and market reactions are tempered by underlying concerns about tariffs, interest rates, and economic uncertainty. Image: Bloomberg
U.S. Equity EPS Growth Expectations U.S. equity EPS growth expectations are particularly strong, with analysts projecting double-digit growth in both 2025 and 2026, driven by economic expansion and technological advancements. Image: TS Lombard
U.S. Economic Surprise Index A rising U.S. Economic Surprise Index is often associated with positive equity performance due to enhanced investor sentiment and expectations of continued economic growth. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
China – Nominal GDP Growth vs. 10-Year Government Bond Yield The persistent drop in bond yields is often seen as a sign of increasing investor caution regarding economic growth, which does not bode well for China’s nominal GDP growth moving forward. Image: Alpine Macro
S&P 500 Fwd. Earnings Growth and Russell 2000 Fwd. Earnings Growth The recovery in EPS growth has been driven by a small number of large-cap companies, which may indicate a late-cycle extension in the economic cycle. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
U.S. Economic Forecasts Deutsche Bank’s baseline forecast depicts a U.S. economy maintaining robust growth, with inflation gradually approaching the Fed’s 2% target and unemployment declining by the end of 2026. Image: Deutsche Bank
Markets – Cumulative S&P 500 Growth vs. Cumulative Real GDP Growth vs. Cumulative S&P Sales Growth The growing disconnect between the U.S. stock market and real economy raises concerns about economic inequality, financial stability, policy challenges and sustainable growth. Image: Real Investment Advice
China GDP Growth Consensus Estimates GDP upgrades are likely to spur interest in China’s markets, encouraging asset allocation towards sectors that align with the country’s economic transformation. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
GDP Growth Revision The U.S. economy demonstrates resilience and promising growth outlook, in contrast to the EU and China, which face slower recoveries and economic challenges. Image: Deutsche Bank