U.S. Equities and The World: Earnings Growth vs. Multiple Expansion Since the 2009 low, the strong performance of the U.S. markets comes from earnings growth (73%) and multiple expansion (27%). You may also like “S&P 500 Return: Earnings Growth vs. Multiple Expansion.” Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation – MSCI World 12-Month Forward PE With global equities trading at 18.5 times forward earnings, valuations look stretched by historical standards. Not a bubble, but far from cheap. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuations – Software vs. World ex. TMT and Technology vs. World TMT Valuations in global tech and software have narrowed sharply, with forward P/Es at their lowest level relative to world equities in more than five years. That could mark a buying window, assuming earnings momentum stays intact. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation – PEG Ratio Between the U.S. and the Rest of the World The valuation premium of U.S. equities versus the rest of the world, through the PEG lens, has narrowed in recent months. But U.S. growth expectations still justify some of that premium. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Relative Equity Market Performance – USA vs. Rest of the World U.S. equities have lagged global peers recently, posting their steepest relative underperformance in 15 years. The leadership baton has passed to cheaper, more cyclical markets overseas, pointing to brighter days for the global cycle. Image: Deutsche Bank Research
MSCI World Performance vs. U.S. Dollar Index The link between the US dollar and global equities is often decisive. A softer dollar usually lifts stock markets worldwide, while a firmer one tends to weigh them down. Image: J.P. Morgan
Global Stocks – MSCI AC World Local Index Citigroup strategists are betting on a 10% rise in global equities this year, backed by a gentle economic slowdown, stronger earnings forecasts, and fresh AI tailwinds. Image: Bloomberg
Valuations – Market Values as a Proportion of World GDP Global equities have tripled their weight since the 1990s, jumping from 75% to above 200% of world GDP—an expansion that screams just how far valuations have run. Honestly, what could go wrong? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Returns – Gold vs. S&P 500 vs. MSCI World $4,000 gold isn’t just a headline—it’s the latest move in a powerhouse rally that has left equities in the dust since the millennium. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 Cyclical-Adjusted P/E Ratio vs. Net Private Foreign Inflows to U.S. Equities If foreign capital inflows weaken or reverse, U.S. stock valuations could come under downward pressure as investors reassess risk amid high prices and seek alternatives. Image: Bloomberg
Over the Following Time Horizons, Would you Rather Own U.S. or European Equities? Deutsche Bank’s survey of 400 financial professionals worldwide shows a strong short-term preference for European stocks over U.S. equities, but this trend is expected to reverse in the longer term. Image: Deutsche Bank