Contributions to Probability of U.S. Recession within One Year
Contributions to Probability of U.S. Recession within One Year Chart suggesting that the probability of a recession in the United States within a year is 45%. Image: J.P. Morgan
Contributions to Probability of U.S. Recession within One Year Chart suggesting that the probability of a recession in the United States within a year is 45%. Image: J.P. Morgan
America’s Mortgage Debt by State The average mortgage debt per capita in the United States is $33.680. Image: howmuch.net
Amount of Retail Space per Person in the U.S. vs. Other Developed Nations America’s retail apocalypse has only just begun. Image: International Council of Shopping Centers
Leading Economic Indicators (LEI): U.S. vs. Global Leading economic indicators appear to be stabilizing, outside the United States. The central banks’ policy response could have a positive knock-on effect on global growth. Image: Legg Mason
Time in Recession Since 1950, the United States has spent 10% of the time in recession compared to 33% for Argentina. Image: Bloomberg
U.S. – China Competition (Focus Risk) The United States and China will eventually conclude a trade agreement, but tensions between the two countries are structural and won’t go away any time soon. Image: BlackRock Investment Institute
Global Nominal GDP After the U.S., China is the world’s second largest economy. Its nominal GDP represents 16% of world GDP, compared to 24% for the United States. Image: Scotiabank
Annual Carbon Emissions in Tons (CO2) About 86% of global carbon emissions are produced by countries other than the United States. You may also like “Total Global Carbon Emissions.” Image: Bloomberg
World PMI Manufacturing Most regions are now in contraction territory, except the United States. Image: Pictet Wealth Management
U.S. Total Nonfarm Payrolls and Recessions Total nonfarm payrolls increased 224K in June, well above expectations, which should calm fears of a near-term recession. The job market is still strong, even if there are signs it is slowing down. Actually, nonfarm payroll growth tends to decline before a recession. You may also like “What Is…
BBB Debt by Sector in the U.S. By sector in the U.S., financial institutions have the largest amount of ‘BBB’ debt: $744 billion. That’s 53% of investment-grade bonds in the United States. You may also like “The U.S. Corporate Bond Debt Rated ‘BBB’ Exceeds $3 trillion.” Image: S&P Global Fixed Income Research