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Historical U.S. Tariff Rate and Implied Rate Based on Latest Announcements If the average effective U.S. tariff rate rises to 20.7%, the economic impact could be substantial. Each 1 percentage point increase in the tariff rate is estimated to reduce economic growth by 0.05 percentage point. Image: Deutsche Bank
Google Searches for “Global Financial Crisis” and “Great Recession” While fears of a 2025 tariff-driven recession evoke memories of 2008, some investors see today’s prevailing pessimism as a contrarian bullish signal for stocks. Historically, extreme bearish sentiment has often marked market bottoms. Image: CNBC
Estimated Earnings Impact of 1pp Change in Statutory Tax Rate A one percentage point change in the corporate tax rate can have a measurable impact on U.S. corporate earnings, with small companies often feeling the effects more acutely than their larger counterparts. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research