Nominal Effective U.S. Dollar and China Business Cycle Indicator (Leading Indicator) China’s business cycle tends to lead the U.S. dollar by 9 months. Image: Alpine Macro
China Credit Impulse and Global Exports, China M1 and Industrial Commodity Prices (Leading Indicators) China credit impulse tends to lead global exports by 12 months. Image: Alpine Macro
Equities – China’s Valuations Are Chinese stocks at reasonable valuations? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
China GDP Growth China’s GDP growth is expected to rebound to 5.5% in 2022. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
China GDP Forecasts BofA is more pessimistic than consensus and expects 2022 China GDP to grow at 4.0% Image: BofA Global Research
5-Year Rolling Correlation Between S&P 500 TTM EPS YoY vs. China Nominal GDP and U.S. Nominal GDP China’s economic growth slowdown suggests trouble ahead for the S&P 500. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
U.S. vs. China – Population 20-59 Years Old Shrinking working-age populations in the U.S. and China could alter growth prospects. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Commodities vs. China Credit Impulse Commodities look expensive vs. China credit impulse. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
China Credit Impulse and Commodities (Leading Indicator) China credit impulse tends to lead commodity prices by 12 months. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
China Excess Reserve Ratio and Credit Impulse (Leading Indicator) Investors should be pleased as Chinese stimulus is on the way. Image: BCA Research