U.S. Fund Flows

U.S. Fund Flows Chart showing the large divergence between flows into equity funds and those into cash and bonds. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Money Market Fund Flows and Probability of Recession

Money Market Fund Flows and Probability of Recession Investors move to safe assets by raising their cash holdings, like 2007/2008. This chart suggests that the probability of a recession in the next 12 months is high. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Flows into Money Market Funds

Flows into Money Market Funds Just like 2007/2008, investors move to safe assets by raising their cash holdings, despite falling rates. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch

Cross-Asset Valuation for the U.S.

Cross-Asset Valuation for the U.S. On an absolute basis, equities look expensive by historical standards, but relative valuations appear attractive, as free cash flow yield and ERP look cheap. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

S&P 500 Drawdowns

S&P 500 Drawdowns The coronavirus crisis starts as a cash flow crisis, and the current drawdown is not comparable with the dotcom or GFC drawdowns. Image: Nordea and Macrobond

Does Quantitative Easing Affect Valuation?

Does Quantitative Easing Affect Valuation? More fundamentally, low interest rates, high margins, low taxes, buybacks & free cash flow drive stocks higher. Image: Fidelity Investments

S&P 500 Payout Ratio

S&P 500 Payout Ratio Stock buybacks and dividends as a percentage of free cash flow are reaching dangerous levels. Image: MarketWatch

Why Lower Bond Yields Influence the S&P 500?

Why Lower Bond Yields Influence the S&P 500? Because lower interest rates push stock market multiples higher.  If interest rates are lower, then the value of future cash flows increases, because future cash flows are discounted back at a lower interest rate. So, lower U.S. 10-year yields influence the stock market equity risk premium. On the other…

Aswath Damodaran – Laws of Valuation: Revealing the Myths and Misconceptions

Aswath Damodaran – Laws of Valuation: Revealing the Myths and Misconceptions Aswath Damodaran is professor of corporate finance at the Stern School of Business at New York University, with his unique perspective about equity valuation. Here, he talks about the corporate life cycle, corporate finance, cash flow and the laws of valuation. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c20_S-QgvsA