“U.S. Stock Market, No Froth In Sight” Says Stock Market Sentiment Index Keep in mind that it is just another investor sentiment tool. But it does not show at all if the US stock market is overvalued or undervalued. See our stock market valuation model (99% correlation and R² = 0.97 since 1970).
Record Valuation Dispersion 1951-2017 Today, there’s an extreme valuation divergence. The crowd invests in the most expensive part of the market. And the Value vs. Growth differential has never been so extreme, even during the Great Depression and the Dotcom bubble. Source: Sound Shore Management
The S&P 500 Hits All-Time High Bulls make money and are happy again… Yes, but until when? Keep in mind that the US stock market is currently overvalued by 9%. Image: Hedgeye Risk Management LLC
Was the US Stock Market Crash on October 19, 1987, a “Black Swan” Event? A “Black Swan” is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise with a major effect, which is extremely difficult to predict. The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. The US stock market on October 19, 1987,…
Why the Stock Market Valuation Matters Before a Recession? When the stock market is VERY overvalued before a recession, it tends to be VERY undervalued. Like the swing of a pendulum, or the stretching of a rubber band, sooner or later it comes back very violently. This happened in 1973, 2000 and 2008. The US…
Over The Last 6 Months, The S&P 500 Lags Bonds, Gold And Global Stocks Last year, the sell-off of stocks was a correction from a bad equity risk premium and an overvalued stock market, as suggested by our forecasting models. Image: Bloomberg
Financial Crisis Survival Lessons: Beats Market & Peers Since Bottom (Ariel Fund) Charles Bobrinskoy at Ariel Investments, has a patient and long-term value approach. He says: “the best time to buy is when people are panicking and scared. You have to be greedy when others are fearful. This is very hard to do, but this…
“Price is what you pay…” – Warren Buffett Quote of the day: “Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.” –Warren Buffett
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index Before a coming recession, also watch the St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index for forecasting the future. It uses 18 weekly data series to measure financial stress in the market: seven interest rate series, six yield spreads and five other indicators. Each of these variables captures some aspect of financial stress.…
Watch Warren Buffett’s full interview with CNBC’s Becky Quick In this interview, Warren Buffett speaks about rail road, Berkshire Hathaway, economic slowdown, yield curve, recession, stock vs. bond, airlines & automotive industry, capitalism, inequality, benefits of free trade, IPOs, entertainment industry, Apple, American Express, Wells Fargo, real estate commission, philanthropy with 2% of GDP, odds,…
Lee Cooperman on market conditions Lee Cooperman (Omega Advisors founder) is a great value investor. He speaks about the market conditions on CNBC with Leslie Picker. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8QVSbUfZM5s