U.S. Budget Deficit as a % of GDP The U.S. administration’s strong interest in rate cuts is largely driven by the need to make financing the enormous deficit more sustainable. By lowering rates, the government can reduce borrowing costs and ease the budgetary pressure. Image: Bloomberg
Percentage of Time 60/40 Returns Were Positive or Outperformed Cash While cash remains an important component of financial stability, excessive cash holdings can hinder long-term wealth growth due to opportunity costs and inflation erosion. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Hyperscaler Capex Hyperscalers are on pace to spend $4 trillion on capex by 2030, more than ten times what the Apollo program cost in today’s dollars, a bet that leaves little room for error. Image: Bloomberg
Median Stock Short Interest as % of Market Capitalization – Russell 2000 vs. Nasdaq 100 vs. S&P 500 Short sellers are crowding into U.S. small‑caps, where weaker balance sheets, higher borrowing costs, and exposure to slower growth make easy targets. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Fed Funds Rate and S&P 500 TTM EPS Growth Strong EPS growth, combined with Fed rate cuts, often fuels equities by reducing funding costs, boosting investment and sustaining earnings momentum—the classic drivers of bull markets. Image: TS Lombard
Oil Prices and Events Higher oil prices function like a tax, reducing disposable income and increasing business costs, which can slow growth or cause recessions. However, these spikes are typically brief as demand falls and markets adjust accordingly. Image: Real Investment Advice
U.S. Dollar Around Fed Cuts Typically, the U.S. dollar experiences weakness before the Fed’s initial rate cut, followed by possible strengthening or stabilization as the easing cycle progresses. Image: TS Lombard
Performance of the Magnificent Seven Stocks Following a period of underperformance, the Mag-7 index has almost caught up to the S&P 500, reflecting regained investor confidence in U.S. AI giants despite the challenges posed by DeepSeek’s low-cost AI innovation. Image: Deutsche Bank
Tariffs Impact on YoY U.S. GDP Growth Over the next three years, higher tariffs are expected to slow U.S. GDP growth by 1.7%, as they raise costs for consumers and businesses, fuel inflation, and drag on economic expansion. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Credit Card Debt Rising credit card debt shows weakened repayment discipline and financial strain from inflation in basic living costs, creating a feedback loop where increased debt and fees further hinder consumers’ ability to restore financial stability. Image: Yahoo Finance
S&P 500 vs. 60/40 Portfolio Since 2020, the S&P 500 has delivered higher returns than the 60/40 portfolio but with greater volatility, while the 60/40 portfolio has provided more stability at the cost of lower overall gains. Image: Bloomberg