YoY Change in S&P 500 Companies’ Mentions of “Inflation” Per Earnings Call vs. CPI YoY Historically, the S&P 500 tends to lag during periods of high inflation. Image: BofA Global Research
Valuation – U.S. 10-Year Real Yield and MSCI World Index Forward Price/Earnings Ratio The price of global equities is expected to fall, if U.S. real yields rise. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
S&P 500 NTM Earnings Yield Gap – Earnings Yield Gap vs. Inflation and U.S. Treasury Yield The earnings yield gap vs. U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is low, but still above its long-term average. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Wage Inflation – Average Hourly Earnings: Leisure and Hospitality Wage inflation is building in the service industry in a context of labor shortages. Image: BofA Global Research
Valuation – S&P 500 NTM P/E vs. Gap Between S&P 500 Earnings Yield and U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Goldman Sachs expects a roughly flat S&P 500 P/E multiple through 2022. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Earnings Growth – S&P 500 Historical Operating and Normalized EPS The U.S. stock market needs earnings growth to rise in 2021 and 2022 as the global economy recovers. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
Earnings – 2021 Quarterly S&P 500 EPS Growth Goldman Sachs is more optimistic than consensus on S&P 500 EPS growth in 2021. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Earnings Forecasts – U.S., Developed International and Emerging Markets Earnings are expected to rise substantially in 2021, as the global economy continues to recover from the coronavirus pandemic. Image: LPL Research
Estimated S&P 500 Earnings Impact of Biden Policies Chart suggesting that there are both upside and downside risks to future S&P 500 earnings. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Earnings Sentiment (S&P 500 Index and STOXX Europe 600 Index) Earnings sentiment seems to have peak in the United States. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Gap Between S&P 500 Earnings Yield and U.S. Treasury Yield This chart suggests that the S&P 500 looks attractive relative to bonds, as the spread between the S&P 500 earnings yield and the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is 368bps. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research