S&P 500 Performance Based on Sector-Level Strength Long-term S&P 500 gains have historically followed periods of either broad market participation, where over eight sectors trade above their 200-day moving average, or extreme oversold conditions, with fewer than two sectors doing so. Image: Hi Mount Research
Change in S&P 500 Quarterly EPS Consensus Despite being larger than average, the recent -4% consensus EPS cut is not unprecedented and mirrors past adjustments during periods of heightened uncertainty such as tariff announcements or broader economic concerns. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Historical U.S. Tariff Rate and Implied Rate Based on Latest Announcements If the average effective U.S. tariff rate rises to 20.7%, the economic impact could be substantial. Each 1 percentage point increase in the tariff rate is estimated to reduce economic growth by 0.05 percentage point. Image: Deutsche Bank
Combined AAII & II Sentiment So far, the combined readings from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) and Investors Intelligence (II) indicate a bullish outlook, reflecting optimism and confidence among market participants. Image: Topdown Charts
S&P 500 Consensus EPS Growth AI remains the dominant force behind S&P 500 earnings growth, with EPS projected to increase over the next three years, driven primarily by the Magnificent 7 and the broader technology sector. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC
S&P 500 Dividend Yields vs. 10-Year Treasury Yields S&P 500 dividend yields are near historic lows, close to levels seen during the 2000 tech bubble, due to high valuations and companies favoring stock buybacks over dividends, challenging income-focused investors relying on dividends. Image: Deutsche Bank
Global Manufacturing PMI Leading indicators and supportive fiscal policies suggest potential upside risks to global manufacturing PMI in the near term. Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 Earnings Yield Minus U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield The recent rally has made U.S. equities relatively expensive compared to bonds. Historically, when the risk premium has been at current levels, the S&P 500 has delivered an average 12-month return of only 2.5% over the past three decades. Image: Bloomberg
Bitcoin vs. Gold Market Capitalization If the trend toward digital financial assets continues and Bitcoin adoption expands, Bitcoin’s upside potential compared to gold is substantial—fueled by its fixed supply, digital utility, and strong growth trajectory. Image: J.P. Morgan
Average Percentile of Sentiment Indicators The post-Liberation Day environment reflects a strong rebound in investor confidence and a more bullish market stance, underpinned by easing tariff fears, trade deal progress, and supportive economic and technical factors. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Nasdaq Composite – 2020 vs. 2025 Analog The Nasdaq’s 2025 market pattern mirrors the 2020 pandemic crash and recovery in terms of price movement and investor sentiment, reflecting resilience and a bullish trend. Image: Real Investment Advice