Amount of Fed Rate Cuts Priced by End of Year
Amount of Fed Rate Cuts Priced by End of Year The outlook could change quickly in response to upcoming inflation data or shifts in the economic landscape, but for now, traders are pricing in almost…
S&P 500 Valuation Multiples
S&P 500 Valuation Multiples Overvaluation in the S&P 500, especially among tech and AI stocks, is a legitimate concern in light of downward revisions to earnings estimates for 2025 and the high degree of index…
Fed Rate Cuts – Implied by Fed Funds Futures
Fed Cuts – Implied by Fed Funds Futures Fewer Fed rate cuts are expected in 2025, but chances of greater easing in 2026 have risen. This reflects caution amid inflation and policy risks, and leaves…
Equities as a Share of Household Assets
Equities as a Share of Household Assets U.S. households now allocate about 49% of their assets to equities, a level that reflects strong market optimism and a significant appetite for risk. Image: Goldman Sachs Global…
U.S. Stocks Relative to Bonds
U.S. Stocks Relative to Bonds U.S. stocks are at their strongest relative to bonds since Trump’s inauguration, supported by persistent risk appetite and the perception of U.S. market resilience amid global uncertainty. Image: Bloomberg
U.S. Net Margin Debt
U.S. Net Margin Debt So far, U.S. margin debt as a share of market capitalization remains elevated, which reflects ongoing confidence in the market. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession
U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession In May, U.S. real retail sales stand at 0.89% YoY. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, real retail sales trended sideways before the recession…
U.S. Households’ Allocation to Equity, Bond and Cash
U.S. Households’ Allocation to Equity, Bond and Cash Americans’ love for stocks has driven household equity allocations to historic highs, increasing wealth but also sparking concerns about market stability and the risks of shifting investor…
WTI Oil Prices
WTI Oil Prices While oil prices remain highly sensitive to geopolitical risks, particularly in regions like the Middle East, the market has so far avoided the kind of sustained shock that would trigger broader inflation.…
YTD Cumulative Global Fund Flows into U.S. Equities
YTD Cumulative Global Fund Flows into U.S. Equities Despite some volatility and brief periods of outflows, flows into U.S. equities in 2025 have been running above the 24-year average, with projections pointing to a record…
Earnings Sentiment (Analyst Upgrades Minus Downgrades Across Markets)
Earnings Sentiment (Analyst Upgrades Minus Downgrades Across Markets) Recent weeks have seen a sustained rise in S&P 500 earnings sentiment, driven by strong corporate results and a persistent trend of earnings beats. Image: Goldman Sachs…