U.S. Rates – Treasury Yield Forecasts Deutsche Bank forecasts the 10-year UST yield at 4.65% by year-end 2025, driven by potential increased tariffs, fiscal easing and deregulation, which may lead to stronger economic growth and…
ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day With the S&P 500 hitting record highs, it’s time for a mass bear deportation—after all, they clearly missed the memo that this party is strictly bull-only! Have a Great Day,…
Fed Funds Futures The market has scaled back its outlook for Fed rate cuts in 2025, with current projections showing three cuts, down from earlier forecasts. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 EPS and Long-Term Trend in Earnings The S&P 500’s earnings trend remains robust, with projections indicating continued growth near the upper limits of its long-term trend channel. Image: Deutsche Bank
ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day Bulls are as excited as a dog with a new bone, likely because they’ve just realized that the last two weeks of December are a jackpot for U.S. equities! Have…
S&P 500 Index Performance by Year of Decade Bulls are smiling again, as years ending in 5 have historically been the most favorable for the S&P 500 index, with gains occurring 92.3% of the time…
S&P 500 Performance for All Republican Terms In Republican presidential terms, the S&P 500 tends to perform worse in the second half of the first year than in the first half, as policy impacts and…
DM Economies Real GDP and Working Age Population CAGR The working-age population plays a pivotal role in driving economic growth and productivity. However, many developed nations face a projected decline in this demographic, potentially hindering…
Inflation – U.S. Core PCE and Forecasts U.S. core PCE inflation is expected to have decelerated significantly in November, reinforcing expectations that the Fed’s monetary policy is effectively controlling inflation. Image: Nomura
U.S. 10Y-3M Yield Curve For the first time since 2022, yields on U.S. 10-year Treasury notes have surpassed those of three-month bills, indicating a potentially positive outlook for U.S. stocks, particularly when a recession is…
S&P 500 Price Target Morgan Stanley’s bull case scenario predicts the S&P 500 could reach 7,400 by the end of 2025, representing significant gains from current levels. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management