S&P 500 Forward Earnings Estimates The earnings fundamentals for the S&P 500 provide a solid foundation for a cautiously optimistic market outlook heading into 2026, with accelerating growth expected to drive further gains in equities.…

Average Post Election Year for S&P 500 The S&P 500 has modestly declined for four days, reflecting typical post-election uncertainty. Historically, US stocks usually bottom by late October in post-election years, before rallying into year-end.…

VIX Seasonality At this time of year, volatility usually rises, driven by a mix of market expectations, macroeconomic data, and seasonal investor behavior. Image: Topdown Charts

Median S&P 500 Stock Short Interest as % of Market Capitalization Although short interest in the S&P 500 has risen sharply in recent months—indicating increased investor caution—it does not currently signal widespread bearishness or panic.…

Equities – Global Valuation Range While the U.S.–non-U.S. valuation gap is unusually wide, non-U.S. valuations remain close to their historical norms. As a result, international markets offer comparatively better value than the U.S., despite not…

Fed Funds Rate Target The current fed funds rate aligns with economic policy rules, maintaining stability without urging aggressive cuts. A potential 25 basis point cut falls within the lower range, but substantial rate cuts…

Typical Path of S&P 500 Bottom-Up Consensus EPS Estimate While positive earnings revisions have been strong recently, this momentum is likely to slow, though it probably won’t fall below the usual historical trend of downward…

Deviation of Earnings Above/Below Long Term Growth Trend The unusually high divergence of current earnings from their long-term growth trend often precedes significant market corrections or reversals, suggesting that investors face elevated risks despite prevailing…

Truck Tonnage vs. S&P 500 Index The Truck Tonnage Index rose 0.6% in July. Trucks represent 72.7% of U.S. freight and serve as a barometer of the U.S. economy. This chart shows that, historically, the…

U.S. New Private Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits and Recessions In July, U.S. building permits declined to 1.354 million, below expectations. Historically, building permits tend to peak and then decline prior to economic recessions.…

MOVE Index and Discretionary Investors Equity Positioning Over the past few years, discretionary positioning has exhibited a strong inverse correlation with rates volatility, though this pattern can fluctuate based on market conditions and investor behavior.…