U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession In March, U.S. real retail sales stand at 2.15% YoY. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, real retail sales trended sideways before the recession…

Policy Uncertainty Index vs. S&P 500 Index While periods of policy uncertainty can create temporary disruptions, they are often short-lived, with spikes frequently occurring near market lows. Image: Real Investment Advice

S&P 500 and VIX Above 50 The VIX rose above 60 during the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 COVID-19 crash. In both cases, the stock market had already bottomed before the VIX dropped below…

Different Market Sentiment Indicators By destabilizing markets and amplifying recession fears, Trump’s tariffs injected systemic risks into global trade, leading to dramatic shifts in investor sentiment and heightened market volatility. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment…

U.S. Real GDP Growth Goldman Sachs forecasts US GDP growth of 1.6% in 2025, slightly above the consensus of major forecasters, and 1.5% in 2026. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Valuation – Shiller Cyclically Adjusted Price/Earnings Ratio Higher inflation and lower corporate profitability structurally undermine the sustainability of U.S. equity valuations. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day Of course bulls want to make a deal with bears—they think every dip is a clearance sale and every market crash is just a friendly game of “who can hold…

Fed Funds Rate and Fed Funds Futures Deutsche Bank expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 bps at the December 2025, January 2026, and March 2026 meetings, bringing the Fed funds rate to a…

Indexed S&P 500 Return – Market Hours vs. Overnight Overnight trading sessions account for almost all of the S&P 500’s recent downturn, overshadowing activity during normal U.S. trading hours. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

World Tech + E-commerce vs. World ex-Tech & E-commerce The secular trend in the market has been deflation (credit & tech) dominating inflation, as $100 of EPS in 1995 is now $1,500 in the technology…

U.S. 10Y-3M Yield Curve While a steepening inverted yield curve has historically served as a warning sign for U.S. recessions, its predictive power may be less definitive in this cycle. Image: J.P. Morgan