Sahm Rule Recession Indicator – U.S. Unemployment Rate A drop in the Sahm Rule indicator below 0.5 is a positive sign, as it suggests the rule is not currently signaling a U.S. recession—a generally reassuring…

Sentiment – Risk Appetite and Expected U.S. Equity Market Performance U.S. equity investors remain highly risk-averse in June 2025, with bearish short-term return expectations, largely driven by political and macroeconomic uncertainties. Image: S&P Global Market…

Federal Reserve Broad Real Effective Trade-Weighted Dollar Both historical trends and current economic indicators suggest that the U.S. dollar is entering a period of decline. Structural fiscal challenges, policy uncertainty, and cyclical patterns all point…

Interest Rates – Market Pricing for the Number of Fed Rate Cuts Investors should expect only one 25bps Fed rate cut for the remainder of 2025, most likely in September, unless there is a significant…

S&P 500 Returns – Strong vs. Weak Periods U.S. stock market returns do tend to be weaker on average during the summer months (May–October) compared to the winter months (November–April). However, investors should consider seasonality…

S&P 500 Bull Markets Over the past five decades, five bull markets have lasted over two years, averaging 8 years and gaining 288%. Since the current bull market is just 32 months old and has…

S&P 500 2025 Year-End Forecasts Wall Street’s S&P 500 forecasts for year-end 2025 have not fully recovered from the recent tariff turmoil. The average outlook has become more cautious, with a wide spread between optimistic…

U.S. Airplane Traffic and Economic Growth A year-over-year decline in U.S. air passenger traffic is a reliable early warning of economic trouble. When uncertainty rises, people and businesses tend to defer travel, which usually bodes…

Small Cap Equity Positioning With small-cap equity allocations at the 23rd percentile, there is considerable room for increased exposure—especially for investors focused on long-term growth. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

Cumulative Global Sector Fund Flows While the technology sector has recorded strong inflows over the past year due to rapid artificial intelligence adoption and expansion, the energy sector has faced outflows. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset…

S&P 500 After Two Month Gains of 20% or More More good news for bulls: Historically, after a two-month gain of over 20%, the S&P 500 has never been lower 1, 3, 6, or 12…