Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs stand at -5.12% YoY in May. The relationship between Temporary Help Services jobs and the macroeconomy is complex. Declines in Temporary…
U.S. Debt Held by Public as Share of GDP Rising U.S. federal debt could lead to higher interest payments, reduced investment and growth, fewer jobs, lower wages, and less flexibility for the government to respond…
MSCI All-Country World Index and RSI (14) Signs of overheating are emerging in global stocks, with technical and flow indicators nearing thresholds that have previously triggered sell signals. Image: Bloomberg
Economy-Wide Firm AI Adoption Rate Since 2025 began, the adoption of artificial intelligence by firms has surged, largely due to proven increases in efficiency, reduced expenses, and improved profits industry-wide. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment…
Forward 10-Year Real Returns and CAPE Valuations While high CAPE ratios can persist in markets for years, history suggests these elevated valuations often precede eras of subdued stock returns. Image: Real Investment Advice
Length of Bull Markets and When They Started The current bull market, which began in October 2022, remains relatively young by historical standards and could persist much longer than bearish observers expect. Image: Carson Investment…
Median S&P 500 Stock Short Interest as % of Market Capitalization The elevated median short interest in the S&P 500 for 2025 suggests that investors are more cautious, but it does not yet signal widespread…
Probability of S&P 500 Drawdown / Rally The S&P 500 has reached a point where the probabilities of a sharp rally and a meaningful drawdown are closely aligned, signaling a market at equilibrium. Image: Goldman…
Cumulative Flows in All Bitcoin Funds and Gold ETF Holdings The past month has seen a clear preference for Bitcoin over gold among investors, driven by a shift toward riskier assets, robust technical performance, and…
Citi U.S. Economic Surprise Index The recent decline in the U.S. Citi Economic Surprise Index indicates that the economy is currently underperforming analysts’ expectations. Image: Real Investment Advice
U.S. Small-Cap Stocks – Russell 2000 vs. S&P 500 While U.S. small-cap stocks have notably underperformed large caps for an extended period, history suggests that such cycles are not unusual and are often followed by…