Developed Market Valuations While the macroeconomic outlook has weakened, the U.S. stock market’s forward P/E ratio has moved back toward pre-Liberation Day levels. Image: TS Lombard

Brent Crude Oil Prices – Biggest Weekly Jumps Fueled by a sudden escalation in Middle East conflict and concerns over major supply disruptions, Brent crude oil prices experienced one of their biggest weekly gains since…

AAII U.S. Investor Sentiment Bearish Readings While AAII U.S. investor pessimism has eased to a 20-week low, bearish sentiment remains modestly elevated relative to historical averages, indicating that caution lingers even as market conditions improve.…

U.S. 10-Year Treasury Term Premium The increasing term premium signals that investors require greater compensation for the risks inherent in holding longer-term bonds, reflecting increased concerns about interest rate and inflation over longer durations. Image:…

S&P 500 Index Performance After Geopolitical and Major Historical Events While geopolitical events may cause short-term market disruptions, markets have historically shown resilience and recovered over time, especially beyond the usual 12-month tactical window. Image:…

U.S. Dollar vs. Gold – Share in Global Reserves As countries and central banks seek to reduce their reliance on the U.S. dollar for reserves and international trade, gold has emerged as the preferred alternative…

Trade Weighted Dollar vs. U.S. Inflation Surprises Since February 2025, the U.S. dollar has closely tracked inflation surprises, as both headline and core inflation came in lower than expected, reflecting Fed policy expectations and concerns…

S&P 500 Recovery In just over two months, the post-“Liberation Day” recovery in the S&P 500 is the strongest and fastest on record, surpassing any rebound seen in the last 75 years. Image: Deutsche Bank…

Stock Returns over the Past 33 Presidential Terms Starting on Inauguration Day U.S. stocks, after experiencing a historic drop at the start of the year, have made a strong recovery during Trump’s second term and…

Sahm Rule Recession Indicator – U.S. Unemployment Rate A drop in the Sahm Rule indicator below 0.5 is a positive sign, as it suggests the rule is not currently signaling a U.S. recession—a generally reassuring…

Interest Rates – Market Pricing for the Number of Fed Rate Cuts Investors should expect only one 25bps Fed rate cut for the remainder of 2025, most likely in September, unless there is a significant…