S&P 500 Performance After 63 Days Above the 20-Day Moving Average After closing above its 20-day moving average for 63 straight days, the S&P 500 has, in the past, continued to rise over the following…
Performance of the Most Shorted Stocks vs the Russell 3000 The recent three-month period has been exceptionally strong for the most heavily shorted stocks outside the pandemic boom, driven significantly by retail investors and short…
Speculative Trading Indicator 3-Month Changes While the U.S. stock market may continue rallying in the near term due to strong earnings and positive trade developments, the heightened speculative activity raises the risk of a notable…
Performance of the Most Shorted Stocks Relative to Russell 3000 Over the last 3 1/2 months, the most heavily shorted stocks have experienced extraordinary rallies, significantly outperforming the broader market. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
U.S. Credit Card Debt Rising credit card debt shows weakened repayment discipline and financial strain from inflation in basic living costs, creating a feedback loop where increased debt and fees further hinder consumers’ ability to…
S&P 500 – 13-Week and 26-Week Moving Average The S&P 500 shows a positive medium-term trend, indicated by moving average crossover signals. Specifically, the 13-week moving average remains above the 26-week moving average and continues…
Each Component of the Speculative Trading Indicator Screens as Elevated vs. History All three core components of Goldman Sachs’s speculative trading indicator—unprofitable, penny, and high EV/sales stocks—are trading near the extreme upper deciles, reflecting a…
Average S&P 500 Price Returns Following Sharp Increases in Speculative Trading Indicator Sharp increases in speculative trading activity serve as a leading indicator of a market cycle marked initially by above-average returns, followed later by…
U.S. Money Supply M2 The pickup in the U.S. M2 money supply matters because it signals increasing liquidity that—if excessive relative to economic output and accompanied by rising velocity—could reignite inflationary pressures. Image: Deutsche Bank
Reserves in Different Currencies While the USD share of global FX reserves has slipped somewhat, it remains close to 60% and continues to be the leading global reserve currency by a wide margin. Image: Deutsche…
S&P 500 vs. 60/40 Portfolio Since 2020, the S&P 500 has delivered higher returns than the 60/40 portfolio but with greater volatility, while the 60/40 portfolio has provided more stability at the cost of lower…