VIX & Yield Curve Cycle Since 2007 This chart also shows that we are in a late business cycle. The spread between the 30-year and the 3-month treasury yields is one of the most interesting…

10-Year Treasury minus 1-Year Treasury Yield Spread vs. S&P 500 Returns If history helps us to predict the future, the 10y-1y treasury yield spread suggests low returns ahead for U.S. stocks. After 10 years of…

Treasury Options and Yield Curve Cycle Since 2007 This great chart shows that we are in a late business cycle. The spread between the 30-year and the 3-month treasury yields is one of the most…

“In this World Nothing Can Be Said to Be Certain, Except Death and Taxes.” ― Benjamin Franklin Image: Hedgeye Risk Management LLC

Global High Yield Bond Spreads Since 2017 High yield bond spreads have widened recently (difference in yields between high yield bonds and comparative government bonds). Image: BlackRock

Do Central Banks’ Negative Rates Work in Europe? Not really. Actually, negative rates distort economies and leave little room to maneuver in the next recession. Secondly, extremely low interest rates are also bad for European…

QE to Infinity and Beyond? Analysts say the Fed will resume and buy “just” U.S. Treasuries next year. The Fed’s balance sheet should rise past its historic peak. Image: Bloomberg – Cartoon: Hedgeye Risk Management LLC

S&P 500 Index Earnings per Share (EPS) Forward Estimates, Next 12 Months, Since 2018 The consensus S&P 500 earnings for the next 12 months has increased from $173 to $175. See why The Risk Of…

The Amount of Outstanding Negative-Yielding Debt since 2009 Investors are paying governments for the privilege of holding their bonds and are losing so much money in real terms. Raising interest rates in the future could…

50 Percent of US Stock Fund Assets Are Invested in Index Funds Until active equity funds drop fees, the flow into passive equity funds will certainly continue. But could markets become inefficient if everyone buys index…

The Trade-Weighted Broad US Dollar Index Hits the Highest Level since 2002 A strong dollar leads to wider trade deficits, and this is a headwind for US exporters. A strong dollar can also hurt emerging markets.…