How’s the U.S. Economy Doing Now? The real GDP Nowcast relies on soft data such as consumer and business surveys and hard data such as retail sales and industrial production. It forecasts the growth of…

Is Trump Right to Criticize Powell? We don’t think so, because: – Interest rates are still near zero in real terms and below real GDP – The rise in Fed rates has very few visible…

What our Short-Term Forecast of the US Stock Market Has Been for the Past 12 Months? Here is what our short-term forecast of the US stock market has been for the past 12 months. This…

BlackRock Geopolitical Risk Indicator for Global Trade Tensions The recent decline of the indicator suggests that investors may be more complacent about the risk and impact of trade conflicts. Source: BlackRock Investment Institute – Global…

“The Individual Investor Should Act Consistently as an Investor…” – Ben Graham Quote of the day: “The individual investor should act consistently as an investor and not as a speculator.” –Ben Graham

Is Inflation Dead? Is this cover of Bloomberg Businessweek a contrarian indicator? Remember that dinosaurs evolved into birds over 50 million years. Do you think we will have to wait 50 million years for inflation to…

The Value vs. Growth Differential Has Never Been So Extreme The Value vs. Growth differential has never been so extreme, even during the Great Depression and the Dotcom bubble. Chasing growth usually ends badly! Image:…

Over The Last 6 Months, The S&P 500 Lags Bonds, Gold And Global Stocks Last year, the sell-off of stocks was a correction from a bad equity risk premium and an overvalued stock market, as…

The Average American Investor Still Underperforms the Market Over the Long Term This is usually due to emotional biases, herding effect, lack of diversification, panic selling,… Most investors buy high and sell low at the…

Six months ago, the S&P 500 was overvalued by more than 14%… Six months ago, the S&P 500 was overvalued by more than 14% before the market crash, through our advanced stock market valuation model. Near…

Why Warren Buffett says that stocks are generally better than bonds? Our equity risk premium model shows when the US stock market return for the next 10 years is more or less attractive than the…