CTAs Exposure to Gold Commodity Trading Advisors have raised their gold allocations and continue to hold net long positions, reflecting bullish sentiment fueled by structural and tactical factors influencing gold’s demand and price in 2025. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Index and Blended Forward EPS Citigroup strategists raised their year-end S&P 500 target to 6,600 points, up from 6,300, expecting that tax cuts introduced in July 2025 will counterbalance the negative impact of tariffs on U.S. companies. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 Net Long Futures Contracts Despite some profit-taking, asset managers and leveraged funds remain strongly net long on S&P 500 futures, signaling a positive outlook for the U.S. stock market. Image: Deutsche Bank
Discretionary Investors Equity Positioning vs. S&P 500 EPS Revision Ratio The gap between strong earnings upgrades and relatively low discretionary investor positioning suggests that these investors are likely to increase their exposure to equities over time. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Financials Group Positioning Financial positioning is still low, currently at the 34th percentile, which suggests room for further growth. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Performance – S&P 500 Index vs. MSCI ACWI ex-US 2025 is notable as a rare year when international stock markets are set to outperform the S&P 500, ending a long period of U.S. equity market supremacy. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 Valuation Multiples While earnings estimates are optimistic and valuations high, this combination raises the risk that any earnings or economic misses could lead to considerable market volatility given how much optimism is already priced in. Image: Real Investment Advice
U.S. Recession Probability Both the S&P 500 equity market and the corporate bond market reflect investor expectations that a U.S. recession is unlikely or at least of low probability in the coming months. Image: J.P. Morgan Flows and Liquidity
Copper to Gold Ratio vs. U.S. ISM Manufacturing A falling copper/gold ratio points to slower U.S. economic growth, reflecting investor caution toward the near-term economic environment. Image: Bloomberg
Average 1-Day Price Reaction to Reported Sales and EPS This season, U.S. stocks are reacting with amplified negative price movements to Q2 earnings misses compared to typical patterns, due to elevated market expectations, valuation concerns, and low tolerance for disappointing results. Image: Yahoo Finance
Global Risk Sentiment Indicators Sentiment indicators suggest a “Goldilocks” scenario for risk appetite—investors are moderately optimistic, cautiously taking on risk without exuberance. Image: TS Lombard