S&P 500 2025 Target JPMorgan has reversed its previously cautious stance on the U.S. stock market, raising its year-end 2025 S&P 500 Index target from 5,200 to 6,000, driven by strong fundamentals, tech sector momentum, and easing trade concerns. Image: Bloomberg
Performance – S&P 500 Index vs. MSCI ACWI ex-US Despite rebounding after the tariff pause, the S&P 500 has not regained global equity leadership; European and Asian stocks have outperformed in 2025 due to better valuations and more stable policies. Image: Bloomberg
Risk Parity Model Portfolio Weights In risk-parity strategies, the current equity allocation is at the 8th percentile—well below the median—reflecting a preference for safer assets despite the ongoing equity rally. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
New Bull Markets Start (20% Off Bear Lows or Near Bear Lows) and What Happened Next for the S&P 500 Bulls have reason to be optimistic, as the S&P 500’s rally of over 20% from its April 8th low follows a historical pattern that has nearly always resulted in higher prices a year later, with…
S&P 500 Annual Buybacks Goldman Sachs forecasts that S&P 500 share buybacks will surpass $1 trillion in 2025 for the first time, a milestone expected to provide a significant tailwind for U.S. equities. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Earnings Sentiment Current earnings sentiment is on an upward trajectory, with multiple indicators highlighting robust corporate performance and the potential for continued market growth. Image: TS Lombard
S&P 500 Index The current rally is underpinned by solid employment data and improving trade sentiment. If the S&P 500 can sustain levels above 6,000, the only major resistance ahead is the all-time high near 6,150. Image: Bloomberg
Return – S&P 500 Index Corrections of 10%-15% History shows that sharp early-year declines in the S&P 500—like those in 2009, 2020, and now 2025—often set the stage for powerful rebounds and strong year-end gains. Image: Carson Investment Research
U.S. NonFarm Employment Annual Growth The YOY job growth rate of 1.1% is a warning sign, as similar levels have coincided with periods just before or during recessions since 1950, supporting the case for the Fed to consider easing monetary policy soon. Image: Paulsen Perspectives
S&P 500 Equity Risk Premium With the U.S. equity risk premium at historically low levels, equity investors face a more challenging environment, as the risk-reward trade-off is less attractive than before. Image: The Daily Shot
Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of U.S. recession in 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, stands at 25.6% in June. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland