S&P 500 Index and Barclays Equity Timing Indicator Barclays’ Equity Timing Indicator—a gauge of 19 market and economic signals—is tilting bullish, implying an 82% chance the S&P 500 rises over the next two months, with past setups since 2015 delivering roughly 4% on average. Image: Bloomberg
Small Cap Equity Positioning Investors have been piling into small-cap stocks in recent weeks, with positioning jumping to a neutral 48th percentile—still leaving plenty of room for further upside. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Returns when New Highs Are Made in August, September, and October History is on the bulls’ side: whenever the S&P 500 has hit new highs in August, September, and October, the fourth quarter has never finished in the red since 1950—a track record market participants can’t ignore. Image: Carson Investment Research
Equities – MSCI U.S. vs. MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. American equities are falling out of step with their global peers, lagging by roughly 9%—the biggest divide since 2009—amid currency shifts and a revival of interest in foreign markets. Image: Bloomberg
Consensus Capex Growth Estimates As we move into 2026, hyperscale AI players are bracing for a sharp slowdown in capital spending—a shift that could weigh on their valuation multiples. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Mega-Cap Growth & Tech Positioning Positioning in mega-cap growth and tech hovers in that sweet spot: 66th percentile, clearly leaning bullish but without the excess—setting the stage for another leg higher should sentiment firm. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Quarterly YoY EPS Growth Relative to Consensus Expectations Consensus sees S&P 500 earnings growth to cool to 6% in 3Q 2025 from 11% in 2Q, but Goldman Sachs thinks the bar may be set too low, pointing to stronger sales momentum and likely upside surprises from the Magnificent Seven. Image: Goldman Sachs Global…
Valuation – Real S&P 500 Index with Recessions and S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio With the Shiller CAPE ratio hovering near 40 times earnings, the U.S. stock market looks expensive and long-term real returns are likely to be lower, though that doesn’t mean a crash is right around the corner. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Returns When New Highs Are Made In October Bulls welcome October’s new highs, knowing the fourth quarter has been kind: markets have risen more than 90% of the time, with average gains of 4.9% going back to 1950. Image: Carson Investment Research
Gold ETF Holdings The surge in Western gold ETF holdings tells a story of fragile nerves and strong convictions—uncertain macro signals, anticipated rate cuts, and a search for safety pushing both private investors and central banks deeper into bullion. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation – S&P 500 CAPE Ratio For a while, valuations look irrelevant—until they dictate everything. Over the past 150 years, stretched multiples have reliably led to leaner returns, with the last three peaks leaving investors underwater in real terms over the next ten years. Image: Deutsche Bank