S&P 500 Quarterly Margin Growth in the high-margin tech sector, economies of scale, network effects, and supportive financial and regulatory environments—key structural shifts—have pushed the S&P 500’s profit margins to nearly a four-year high. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs stand at -2.91% YoY in August. The relationship between Temporary Help Services jobs and the macroeconomy is complex. Declines in Temporary Help Services Jobs are often considered a leading indicator of a potential recession (red line at -3.5%), but they do…
Returns for Major Global Financial Assets The S&P 500 index rose 2.17% in July, which has historically been the best month in post-election years and over the past two decades. Image: Deutsche Bank
Market Implied Probability of a Fed Cut The odds of a September Fed rate cut have soared—current market pricing now suggests a very high probability after deeply disappointing U.S. labor market data. Image: TS Lombard
Most Shorted Stocks Relative to Russell 3000 Heavily shorted stocks generally underperform the broader market over the long term, but in 2025, they significantly outperformed, driven primarily by aggressive short covering. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Recession – U.S. Real Retail Sales U.S. real retail sales and consumer confidence trends indicate cautious and subdued consumer spending growth, which has historically been linked to an increased risk of recession. Image: Real Investment Advice
Seasonality – S&P 500 Index Average Monthly Returns While the bull market continues, August is generally regarded as a challenging month for U.S. equities in post-election years, characterized by a higher likelihood of declines and increased volatility. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 – Hedge Funds vs. Retail Investors The contrast between hedge funds taking short positions and retail investors being long is often seen as a warning of potential equity market weakness over the next one to three months. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 and Combination of Forward PE, VIX, Bullish Sentiment The Euphoriameter is rising again after a partial reset earlier in the first half of the year. Although this reset seems to have prolonged the current market cycle, overly bullish investors still risk future disappointment. Image: Topdown Charts
S&P 500 Cyclical-Adjusted P/E Ratio vs. Net Private Foreign Inflows to U.S. Equities If foreign capital inflows weaken or reverse, U.S. stock valuations could come under downward pressure as investors reassess risk amid high prices and seek alternatives. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 and the 14-Day RSI The combination of the S&P 500’s overbought status, elevated complacency, and rich valuations suggests limited upside potential in the near term and calls for careful monitoring. Image: Bloomberg