S&P 500 After 5% Gain In May Historically, when May delivers a gain of over 5%, June tends to see continued strength, and the following 12 months have always produced positive returns, averaging close to 20% since 1985. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Index vs. S&P 500 Equal Weight Index The S&P 500’s strong performance in May has not offset its lackluster start to 2025, and historical trends suggest that the third year of a bull market often brings continued volatility and only modest gains. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 Yearly Performance During Bull Markets Historically, the first two years of a bull market tend to deliver robust returns. While the third year may test investors’ patience, historical trends suggest that better times often follow. Image: Carson Investment Research Click the Image to Enlarge
Median Annual S&P 500 Total Return Based on Nominal 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield There is no consistently clear or stable relationship between bond yields and equity returns. Their correlation is dynamic and shaped by various economic factors, including inflation, interest rates, and credit risk. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Foreign Investor Ownership Share of U.S. Equity Market Foreign investors now hold a record 18% of U.S. stocks, but shifting trade policies and global economic uncertainties may affect future investment in American equities. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Valuation The S&P 500 remains significantly overvalued according to several long-term valuation metrics. Historically, such elevated valuations have often preceded periods of below-average long-term equity returns. Image: Bloomberg
Global Debt Hits a Fresh Record While the global debt-to-GDP ratio has slightly declined, the absolute debt burden remains a major risk, requiring careful fiscal management and international cooperation to avoid financial instability. Image: International Monetary Fund
U.S. Effective Tariff Rate The consensus is that tariffs typically exert upward pressure on prices, dampen retail sales, and reduce business confidence. Image: Bloomberg
Performance – S&P 500 vs. 30-Year US Treasury vs. Trade-Weighted U.S. Dollar The simultaneous decline of U.S. equities, bonds, and the dollar is rare—especially during periods of market stress— and signals a potential shift in global investor sentiment and the structural underpinnings of U.S. financial markets. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Consumer Confidence Composite vs. Trailing S&P 500 Valuations The composite consumer confidence index is highly correlated with trailing one-year S&P 500 valuations, which can signal times of market exuberance or caution. Image: Real Investment Advice
Average S&P 500 Return in Session Following a Down Day In 2025, investors who bought the dip in the U.S. stock market experienced the highest next-day returns in over 30 years, with the S&P 500 averaging a 0.36% gain in the trading session following a down day. Image: Yahoo Finance