S&P 500 and Liquidity Liquidity remains abundant. But once conditioned to buy every dip, investors since 2022 have stopped watching liquidity and started trading Fed whispers—betting more on signals than on fundamentals. Image: Real Investment Advice
CTAs Exposure to Gold CTAs have cut back on gold, but they’re still net long — the bulls aren’t giving up yet. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Earnings Yield Minus U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield With the S&P 500 equity risk premium slipping below zero, markets are flashing a warning: risk isn’t being rewarded anymore. Image: Bloomberg
Gold vs. S&P 500 Gold is keeping pace with the S&P 500, defying the long-standing pattern of equity dominance in the fiat era and reasserting its appeal as a hedge against market and currency risk. Image: BCA Research
Market Breadth – Percent Below 52-Week High S&P 500 Index Less Median Stock The rebound in the S&P 500’s 52-week market breadth suggests the rally has room to run, with broader participation hinting at strategic rotations rather than structural weakness. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Share Buyback Announcements Bulls are right to smile: At $6–7 billion a day through year-end, U.S. corporate buybacks are the market’s invisible hand—lifting prices and muting every attempt at a selloff. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Equity Returns It’s not a bubble—at least not yet. But with AI money flooding in and U.S. companies rethinking how they raise and spend cash, investors can’t afford to ignore valuations, balance sheets, or results. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation – Shiller Cyclically-Adjusted S&P 500 Price-to-Earnings Ratio By the Shiller CAPE’s measure, U.S. stocks are back in the stratosphere — the kind that’s thrilled investors on the way up, and burned them on the way down. It’s a level that has often meant thinner returns and rising risk. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Returns into Year-End Following >15% Through October When Wall Street catches fire, it usually keeps burning. In years when the S&P 500 has already surged more than 15% by late October, it has added another 4.7% on average through year‑end—winning 20 out of 21 times since 1950. Image: Truist
Average Equity Fund Flow by Calendar Month Over the Past Decade Excluding U.S. Election Years History says year-end momentum has legs: outside U.S. election years, equity flows spike in December and stay strong through Q1—adding weight to the case for retail strength through early 2026. Image: J.P. Morgan Flows and Liquidity
Performance of a Basket of Stocks with the Most Net Call Volume in the Previous Week The latest U.S.-China trade escalation is a reminder of how fast momentum-driven strategies can crumble once volatility resurfaces and the market’s mood turns. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation