S&P 500 Compared to Its 200-Day Moving Average With the S&P 500 sitting 10% above its 200-day moving average, the market looks firmly bullish, suggesting more upside potential until a local peak around 13–15% above the 200-dma—roughly 6,950—comes into play. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC
Discretionary Investor Positioning Discretionary investors have kept to the sidelines amid a cautious mood, but stronger data and resilient earnings should ease growth concerns and tempt them back into risk assets. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Quarterly Returns Seasonality tends to favor the bulls into year-end. Going back to 1950, the S&P 500 has gained more than 4% on average in the fourth quarter, posting positive returns 80% of the time. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Trend Channel Deutsche Bank is sticking with its call for the S&P 500 to hit 7,000 by year-end 2025, betting on strong earnings momentum, steady corporate buybacks, and firm investor appetite. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Market Breadth – Percent Below 52-Week High S&P 500 Index Less Median Stock The rebound in the S&P 500’s 52-week market breadth suggests the rally could extend into year-end, buoyed by wider participation, looser monetary policy, and steady earnings growth. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Valuation Multiples With S&P 500 earnings estimates running high and valuations stretched, the risk is that any earnings or economic disappointment could trigger sharp market volatility. Image: Real Investment Advice
Scatter Plot Returns of P/E Multiples and S&P 500 1-Year Returns The weak link between the P/E ratio and the S&P 500’s one-year performance shows why investors are better off keeping their eyes on the long game, not short-term valuations. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 and Nasdaq vs. 1996-2001 Analog With policy easing expected to run into 2026, will U.S. equities continue to mirror the boom years of 1996 to 2001? Image: Alpine Macro
U.S. High Yield Credit Spreads Tight high-yield spreads signal strong market confidence, but they also raise red flags by potentially masking underlying vulnerabilities and feeding investor complacency by making risks seem less significant than they are. Image: Topdown Charts
Underlying U.S. Real GDP Growth The AI-driven tech boom has kept the U.S. economy from slipping into recession in 2025, but whether the rally can last is far from certain—and a pullback in investment could quickly tip the balance. Image: Deutsche Bank Research
Asset Bubbles – Bitcoin, Equities and Bonds While caution is always warranted and some assets look frothy, extreme market bubbles are not apparent right now—though pockets of overvaluation do remain. Image: Deutsche Bank Research