S&P 500 Performance During and After Government Shutdowns Even the longest government shutdown in U.S. history couldn’t rattle Wall Street. Stocks held firm—and historically, once Washington gets back to work, equities have gained an average of 12.7% over the next 12 months. Image: Carson Investment Research
Valuation – S&P 500 Real Value Index Since 1871, the S&P 500 real total returns, dividends reinvested, have averaged 6.9% a year. The U.S. Real Value Index has always mean-reverted — and right now, it is between 10% and 20% above fair value. Image: TS Lombard
S&P 500 Index Max Pullback per Calendar Year Markets don’t move in straight lines. Since 1980, the S&P 500 has averaged double‑digit annual gains, even as it routinely fell an average 14% at some point each year — a reminder that volatility is the price of long-term returns. Image: Carson Investment Research
U.S. Stock Market Valuations – Combined P/E Ratio High P/E ratios in U.S. tech stocks cut both ways — they highlight the sector’s strong growth prospects but also the danger of valuations inflated by unbridled investor optimism. Image: Topdown Charts
U.S. Labor Productivity A pandemic-driven productivity surge has put U.S. real output per hour 1.7% above its previous trajectory, providing tailwinds to economic performance and keeping the American growth story alive and well. Image: Deutsche Bank
Bitcoin Price and 365-Day Moving Average A break below the 365-day moving average puts Bitcoin on the defensive. Add in thin dip demand, margin pressure, and souring sentiment, and the setup looks ripe for institutional players to stay sidelined until clarity emerges. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 Valuations Based On Forward Operating EPS Easy money and low rates could keep pushing S&P 500 multiples higher, but the risk is that earnings won’t rise fast enough to support them. For the moment, liquidity is driving markets far more than fundamentals. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Aggregate vs Median Earnings Growth Deutsche Bank is getting more bullish on corporate America. After a strong third quarter, the bank has lifted its S&P 500 earnings forecast to $280 in 2025 and $320 in 2026, betting that profit growth is widening and gaining speed. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Broad Nominal Trade-Weighted Dollar and 200-Day Moving Average After weeks of drift, the U.S. dollar’s rebound looks more than just noise, with key gauges—like the 200-day moving average—suggesting the move has technical legs, at least in the short run. Image: BCA Research
U.S. ETF and Mutual Fund Flows In 2025, many investors have been favoring the relative safety of bonds and money market funds over riskier equities, amid geopolitical tensions, and persistently high interest rates. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Share of S&P 500 Company Quarter-Ahead EPS Guidance Above Consensus Estimates Robust earnings and upbeat company guidance are keeping corporate America in a bullish mood about near‑term profits, lending fresh support to elevated equity valuations. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research