Category: Blog

U.S. Effective Tariff Rate The consensus is that tariffs typically exert upward pressure on prices, dampen retail sales, and reduce business confidence. Image: Bloomberg

Performance – S&P 500 vs. 30-Year US Treasury vs. Trade-Weighted U.S. Dollar The simultaneous decline of U.S. equities, bonds, and the dollar is rare—especially during periods of market stress— and signals a potential shift in global investor sentiment and the structural underpinnings of U.S. financial markets. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. Consumer Confidence Composite vs. Trailing S&P 500 Valuations The composite consumer confidence index is highly correlated with trailing one-year S&P 500 valuations, which can signal times of market exuberance or caution. Image: Real Investment Advice

Average S&P 500 Return in Session Following a Down Day In 2025, investors who bought the dip in the U.S. stock market experienced the highest next-day returns in over 30 years, with the S&P 500 averaging a 0.36% gain in the trading session following a down day. Image: Yahoo Finance

Seasonality – Monthly Return Stats for the S&P 500 Historically, when May sees strong gains—over 5%—it often paves the way for continued positive sentiment and solid returns in June, especially when economic and monetary conditions are favorable. Image: Topdown Charts

Money Market Fund Assets as a Percent of S&P 500 Market Capitalization Despite record levels of cash in money market funds, cash on the sidelines is not elevated relative to the S&P 500 market capitalization. In fact, the ratio of money market funds assets to S&P 500 market cap is near historic lows. Image: J.P.…

After-Tax Nonfinancial Corporate Profits as Share of Gross Value Added While U.S. corporate profits fell in Q1 2025 due to higher costs and economic uncertainty, they remain historically high, reflecting both the strength and the vulnerability of large companies in the current economic climate. Image: Bloomberg

Weekly Net Flow to U.S. Bitcoin and Gold ETFs Over the past five weeks, U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs have attracted more than $9 billion, while gold-backed ETFs have seen outflows of $2.8 billion. This trend highlights Bitcoin’s growing recognition as a credible hedge in investment portfolios. Image: Bloomberg

U.S. Real GDP Growth Goldman Sachs projects U.S. GDP growth of 1.5% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026, both slightly above the consensus estimates of major forecasters. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

S&P 500 Performance One Year After 5% Monthly Gains There’s very good news for bulls: Since 1950, whenever the S&P 500 has gained more than 5% in May, it has historically been higher 12 months later, with an average increase of 19.9%. Image: Carson Investment Research

Valuation – U.S. Equities vs. Rest of World – 12-Month Forward PE Ratios U.S. equities trade at historically high valuations versus global peers, with the premium widening. While strong fundamentals support this, it also poses risks if growth expectations decline or macroeconomic conditions worsen. Image: Deutsche Bank