Cumulative Change in Consensus Earnings Estimates Despite a projected slowdown in earnings growth for the Magnificent 7 in 2025, analysts remain broadly optimistic about their continued market leadership. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Performance – S&P 500 Relative to Rest of the World While U.S. stocks outperformed international markets for more than a decade, 2025 has seen a reversal, with American equities lagging behind most global peers—even after the recent rally. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 YTD Return The underperformance of the Magnificent Seven in 2025 signals a meaningful change in market dynamics, with investors rotating toward other sectors and a more balanced market leadership emerging. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Year-End Target Wall Street strategists surveyed by Bloomberg predict a median S&P 500 year-end target of 5,900 for 2025, but their forecasts range widely from 5,200 to 7,007, reflecting significant divergent market views. Image: Bloomberg
Developed Market Gold ETF After a sustained period of outflows, developed market gold ETFs saw a return to positive investment flows in 2025, though inflows are still modest relative to historical highs. Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 Performance After >19% in 27 Trading Days This is more than just another bear market rally, as the S&P 500 has jumped over 19% in 27 trading days. Historically, since 1950, similar rallies have averaged a 32% gain one year later, with positive returns every time. Image: Carson Investment Research
Earnings Growth Goldman Sachs anticipates a more diversified earnings landscape for the S&P 500, with the dominance of the Magnificent Seven tech giants moderating as other companies pick up the pace. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Discretionary Equity Positioning and S&P 500 EPS Growth At current levels, discretionary investors are factoring in continued strong earnings growth for the S&P 500, with no signs of a slowdown. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Median Excess Return vs. S&P 500 on Day After Earnings Report While positive earnings surprises still led to outperformance in 1Q, the magnitude of that outperformance was smaller than usual for the quarter, due to broader macroeconomic concerns or already high expectations priced into stocks. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Annual Highs Per Month There’s more positive news for bulls: Historically, the S&P 500 rarely peaks in February, and this year followed that trend. With the index currently just 3% shy of its record, a new all-time high could be on the horizon. Image: Carson Investment Research
Median S&P 500 Performance Around Drawdowns Close to or Larger than 20% Since 1950 In the absence of recession, short-lived market drawdowns are often followed by strong recoveries, offering attractive returns to investors who stay the course rather than selling in panic. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research