S&P 500 and Fed Funds Target Rate When the Fed cuts rates outside of a recession, U.S. stocks typically perform well, benefiting from easier borrowing conditions, stronger earnings prospects, and shifts in investor risk preferences. Image: Bloomberg
Gold Net Long Managed Money on COMEX Rising speculative positioning in gold signals increased bullishness but also raises the risk of a short-term pullback, as prices often correct after speculative positions become excessively extended. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Russell 2000 Net Futures Contracts Asset managers and leveraged funds hold large net short positions in Russell 2000 futures despite recent small-cap gains, creating conditions for potential short covering that could trigger further upward momentum in small-cap futures. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession In August, U.S. real retail sales stand at 2.00% YoY. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, U.S. real retail sales trended sideways before the recession began.
Fed Funds Rate Scenario Analysis In its baseline scenario, Goldman Sachs forecasts that the Fed will cut interest rates from 4.3% to 3.1% by the end of 2026. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Nasdaq 100 Futures Positioning Despite recent profit-taking, asset managers and leveraged funds remain heavily net long in Nasdaq 100 futures, suggesting continued confidence in technology and growth stocks. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Returns After Fed Interest Rate Cuts Resume When the Fed delivered just one or two rate cuts after pausing—seen in four different cycles—the U.S. economy was typically strong, with cyclical sectors such as financials and industrials outperforming the broader market. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 Performance After 30% Rallies in Five Months A rally of over 30% in just five months is an exceptionally rare occurrence for the S&P 500, having happened only five times since 1950. In every case, the index was higher one year later, with average gains exceeding 18%. Image: Carson Investment Research
U.S. Sectors With Rising EPS Rising EPS across almost all major U.S. sectors is a significant driver of equity market strength and investor confidence, as it signals strong corporate profitability and growth potential. Image: TS Lombard
S&P 500 Ratio to Its 200-DMA and AAII Investor Sentiment Bull Minus Bear Spread Historically, very low investor sentiment has not only signaled caution but also suggested further upside in U.S. equities, offering opportunities for contrarian investors. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
U.S. Money Market Fund Assets vs. Federal Funds Effective Rate U.S. money market funds typically experience asset inflows during rate hikes but see outflows approximately 12 months after the Fed initiates rate cuts. Image: Real Investment Advice