Citi U.S. Earnings Revision Index and S&P 500 Index The strong trend in earnings upgrades and positive forward guidance explains why the S&P 500 has repeatedly reached new record highs, reflecting solid corporate profitability and optimistic analyst outlooks for the near-term future. Image: Bloomberg
Median 1-Year U.S. Inflation by Party Inflation expectations in the U.S. over the coming 12 months differ sharply along partisan lines, with Republicans anticipating low inflation and Democrats expecting it to rise significantly. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC
U.S. Tariff Costs Goldman Sachs forecasts that by October 2025, U.S. businesses will absorb just 8% of Trump-era tariff costs—down from 64%—while the share borne by U.S. consumers rises to 67%. This shift is expected to drive consumer prices higher. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Monthly U.S. Equity Mutual Fund and ETF Flows Weak U.S. equity fund flows indicate investor concerns about trade policy uncertainty, which is dampening economic growth and increasing market volatility, alongside a cautious near-term outlook for U.S. equities. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
NFIB Confidence vs. U.S. Small-Cap Stocks The NFIB Small Business Survey’s annual rate of change closely mirrors U.S. small-cap stock performance, making the NFIB index a key economic indicator for investors in this market segment. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 vs. Trend Line Growth Long-term trend charts show the S&P 500 trading significantly above its historical growth trajectory, with valuations at elevated levels—implying that U.S. equities are overvalued by traditional measures. Image: Ned Davis Research
Earnings of Tech Companies While U.S. tech stocks benefit from a wave of strong performance fueled by both hype and solid earnings fundamentals, non-tech stocks continue to experience prolonged earnings stagnation. Image: Topdown Charts
S&P 500 – Length and Severity of Bear and Subsequent Bull Markets Since 1970, the typical bear market lasts roughly 14 months, experiencing an average decline of around 38%, and is followed by bull markets that last about 70 months and generate average returns of 221%. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Energy Group Positioning Energy positioning in the 55th percentile is considered neutral and far from extreme. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 3-Month Return Dispersion S&P 500 return dispersion has risen above the long-term average in recent months, indicating that the gap between the best- and worst-performing stocks in the index has widened significantly. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
ISM Composite Index vs. Recessions The economically weighted ISM composite index for the U.S. shows that economic activity is not booming, but does not suggest a looming recession. Image: Real Investment Advice