ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day Despite a strong rally this week, the S&P 500 index ended April down 0.76%. No need to panic-this isn’t a call to “Make Bears Great Again!” unless you prefer market declines. Happy Friday, Everyone! 😎
Probability of U.S. Recession As Priced Across Asset Classes The S&P 500 is pricing in about a 25% chance of a recession, which is lower than signals from copper prices or the yield curve, but higher than the recession probabilities implied by global equities or high-yield credit markets. Analysts often use the current percentage change…
Bitcoin Price Bitcoin is approaching $100,000, marking a strong recovery after its February 2025 peak. The rally is driven by robust inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, renewed risk appetite among investors, and positive sentiment in global markets. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 – Magnificent 7/Other 493 and 200-Day Moving Average The frenzy surrounding the Magnificent Seven tech stocks has faded in 2025, but these firms remain key players and are broadly keeping pace with the market, despite recent turbulence. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 Index vs. 200 and 40-Week Moving Averages Despite recent volatility driven by trade concerns, as long as the S&P 500 index is trading above the 200-week moving average, the secular bull market remains intact. Image: Real Investment Advice
Valuation – S&P 500 12-Month Forward P/E Ratio The S&P 500’s forward P/E ratio of 20x places it above historical averages, reinforcing the view that current valuations are not historically cheap. Image: The Daily Shot
ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day The S&P 500’s 7.8% drop in Trump’s first 100 days has bulls asking if this market comes with a money-back guarantee. Meanwhile, bears are finally coming out of hibernation-and they look hungry! Have a Great Day, Everyone! 😎
U.S. Unemployment Rate Could the U.S. consumer—remarkably resilient thus far—face potential cracks from escalating trade tensions, immigration policy shifts, and fiscal adjustments? Image: Deutsche Bank
Total Returns for a Selection of Major Global Financial Assets since the U.S. Election Since Inauguration Day, U.S. stocks have significantly underperformed major global financial assets, largely due to trade tensions, policy uncertainty, and a notable shift in investor sentiment toward international markets. Image: Deutsche Bank
Number of U.S. IPOs Despite ongoing uncertainties, could the U.S. IPO market experience growth and recovery in 2025? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 – 2022 Correction vs. 2025 Correction The U.S. stock market did bounce as the technical composite dipped below 20, and the rally that began this past week could extend further, particularly if positive news emerges. Image: Real Investment Advice