U.S. 10-Year Treasury Term Premium The increasing term premium signals that investors require greater compensation for the risks inherent in holding longer-term bonds, reflecting increased concerns about interest rate and inflation over longer durations. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Index Performance After Geopolitical and Major Historical Events While geopolitical events may cause short-term market disruptions, markets have historically shown resilience and recovered over time, especially beyond the usual 12-month tactical window. Image: Carson Investment Research
U.S. Dollar vs. Gold – Share in Global Reserves As countries and central banks seek to reduce their reliance on the U.S. dollar for reserves and international trade, gold has emerged as the preferred alternative asset. Image: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research
Trade Weighted Dollar vs. U.S. Inflation Surprises Since February 2025, the U.S. dollar has closely tracked inflation surprises, as both headline and core inflation came in lower than expected, reflecting Fed policy expectations and concerns about the U.S. economic outlook. Image: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research
S&P 500 Recovery In just over two months, the post-“Liberation Day” recovery in the S&P 500 is the strongest and fastest on record, surpassing any rebound seen in the last 75 years. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Stock Returns over the Past 33 Presidential Terms Starting on Inauguration Day U.S. stocks, after experiencing a historic drop at the start of the year, have made a strong recovery during Trump’s second term and are now in positive territory for 2025, fueling renewed optimism among bulls. Image: Carson Investment Research
Sahm Rule Recession Indicator – U.S. Unemployment Rate A drop in the Sahm Rule indicator below 0.5 is a positive sign, as it suggests the rule is not currently signaling a U.S. recession—a generally reassuring indicator for economic health. Image: Bloomberg
Interest Rates – Market Pricing for the Number of Fed Rate Cuts Investors should expect only one 25bps Fed rate cut for the remainder of 2025, most likely in September, unless there is a significant deterioration in economic data or a sharp rise in unemployment. Image: The Daily Shot
S&P 500 Returns – Strong vs. Weak Periods U.S. stock market returns do tend to be weaker on average during the summer months (May–October) compared to the winter months (November–April). However, investors should consider seasonality as a tendency rather than a rule. Image: Real Investment Advice
U.S. Airplane Traffic and Economic Growth A year-over-year decline in U.S. air passenger traffic is a reliable early warning of economic trouble. When uncertainty rises, people and businesses tend to defer travel, which usually bodes poorly for overall economic growth. Image: TS Lombard
S&P 500 After Two Month Gains of 20% or More More good news for bulls: Historically, after a two-month gain of over 20%, the S&P 500 has never been lower 1, 3, 6, or 12 months later. In fact, one year after such rallies, it has averaged gains of over 30%. Image: Carson Investment Research