S&P 500 and Liquidity Increased aggregate U.S. liquidity generally acts as a tailwind for the U.S. stock market, potentially boosting equity prices. However, the Fed Liquidity Index currently shows the opposite dynamic. Image: Real Investment Advice
VIX Buy Signals After VIX surges, the S&P 500 rose in 85% of instances over the next few months—but not during recessions. Image: J.P. Morgan
ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day U.S. tariff policy is causing substantial harm on both the American brand and the broader economy. Rising costs, declining foreign tourism, and boycotts of American products are set to cost the U.S. economy billions of dollars. Have a Great Day, Everyone! 😎
Policy Uncertainty Index vs. S&P 500 Index While periods of policy uncertainty can create temporary disruptions, they are often short-lived, with spikes frequently occurring near market lows. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 and VIX Above 50 The VIX rose above 60 during the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 COVID-19 crash. In both cases, the stock market had already bottomed before the VIX dropped below 31. This pattern seems to be repeating in 2025. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC
Valuation – Shiller Cyclically Adjusted Price/Earnings Ratio Higher inflation and lower corporate profitability structurally undermine the sustainability of U.S. equity valuations. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day Of course bulls want to make a deal with bears—they think every dip is a clearance sale and every market crash is just a friendly game of “who can hold their breath the longest!” Happy “Hump” Day, Everyone! 🐫🐪😎
U.S. 10Y-3M Yield Curve While a steepening inverted yield curve has historically served as a warning sign for U.S. recessions, its predictive power may be less definitive in this cycle. Image: J.P. Morgan
Huge Advancing Volume as a % of Total Volume and What the S&P 500 Did Next NYSE’s surging advancing volume on Wednesday is highly bullish, with historical data since 1980 showing the S&P 500 consistently gaining over 3-, 6-, and 12-month periods afterward, averaging a 29.2% annual return. Image: Carson Investment Research
ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day With U.S. stocks down YTD, bears are busy penning eulogies for the market. Bulls, however, are buying the dip like it’s Black Friday—happier than kids in a candy store! Have a Great Day, Everyone! 😎
Aggregated U.S. Equity Futures Positions and S&P 500 Relative to Its 200-DMA While leveraged funds and asset managers have slightly scaled back their bullish stance, they still maintain substantial net long positions in U.S. equity futures. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation