S&P 500 Equity Risk Premium and Yield Gap With the S&P 500 equity risk premium at historically low levels, the current investment landscape presents significant challenges for equity investors. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Consensus Earnings Expectations Analysts are projecting S&P 500 earnings growth of 9.3% in 2025 and 14.0% in 2026. These consensus forecasts reflect a robust expected acceleration in profit growth, particularly moving from 2025 into 2026. Image: Yahoo Finance
S&P 500 Foreign Revenues by Sector S&P 500 companies derive 28% of their total revenues from foreign markets — a figure that has remained relatively stable in recent years. The remaining 72% is generated domestically within the United States. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Effective vs. Statutory U.S. Tariff Rates While statutory tariff rates have jumped following swift policy changes, the effective tariff rate—the actual rate paid on imports—lags because of delayed enforcement, stockpiling, shifting trade routes, and ongoing uncertainty. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Trade-Weighted U.S. Dollar Amid trade-related uncertainty and tariffs weighing on U.S. growth and investor sentiment, Goldman Sachs expects the U.S. dollar to decline further, potentially providing a tailwind for mega-cap tech stocks. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Effective Tariff Rate A 19% rise in the effective U.S. tariff rate would significantly slow economic growth and sharply increase recession risk, with broad spillover effects on inflation, employment, and overall business confidence. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Equities – 12-Month Forward P/E Ratio and Share Prices Market optimism is fueled by hopes of resolving trade and geopolitical risks, but high S&P 500 valuations increase vulnerability. Without resolution or robust earnings growth, the risk of a market pullback rises. Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500, as Reported EPS and Forecast Analysts currently do not anticipate an outright profit downturn for corporate America, but compelling reasons suggest that earnings growth may slow, particularly due to the impact of tariffs. Image: TS Lombard
Share of U.S. Corporate Profits from Foreign Markets Foreign markets account for 13% of US corporate profits, while emerging markets contribute 4%. Yet, trade uncertainties and recent tariffs may threaten these contributions moving forward. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Brent Crude Oil Price Forecast Goldman Sachs projects that Brent crude oil prices will average $66 per barrel in the second half of 2025, with a subsequent decline to an annual average of $56 per barrel in 2026, as a result of rising global supply from OPEC+. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Monthly Number of U.S. IPOs and S&P 500 The IPO market’s rebound in 2025 is a clear signal of renewed risk appetite and a progressing market cycle, with investors showing strong demand for new equity issues. Image: Topdown Charts