Waterfall Declines in the S&P 500 Contrary to the widespread belief that markets systematically retest lows, analysis of waterfall declines since 1929 reveals that such occurrences are far from consistent. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC
S&P 500 and Breadth-Based Stock Market Bottom Signal A signal indicating a potential market bottom, based on extreme breadth levels, has been triggered. Historically, such signals often precede market turning points but are not infallible and can sometimes appear prematurely. Image: Bloomberg
ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day If the U.S. trade deficit is a national emergency, then the small-cap and Nasdaq bear markets need life support! Happy “Hump” Day, Everyone! 🐫🐪😎
Consensus Estimated Margin Growth Slower economic growth and rising costs are expected to lead to a decline in S&P 500 margin estimates later this year. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Risk Appetite Indicator for Different Asset Classes Investors have sharply shifted toward risk aversion due to escalating tariff policies and eroding market visibility. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Bond Volatility – MOVE Index The MOVE index, indicating the implied volatility of U.S. Treasury options, has recently reached its highest level since 2023, reflecting heightened uncertainty and broader financial instability. Image: The Daily Shot
Probability of U.S. Recession The rise in the one-year recession probability based on the S&P 500 and BBB spread is seen as a negative sign, highlighting economic risks that could affect market sentiment and change investment strategies. Image: J.P. Morgan
The 15 Worst Q1 Returns for the S&P 500 and What Happened Next A weak Q1 for the S&P 500 often sets the tone for lackluster performance in the remaining quarters, with data showing a median return of just 3.0% for the final three quarters. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Bear Markets S&P 500 bear markets tied to recessions don’t end before the recession starts. Those without a recession are rare and usually short. Image: TS Lombard
ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day Bull market secured… until it isn’t. In finance, the wise investor always expects the unexpected! Have a Great Day, Everyone! 😎
U.S. Financial Conditions Index and Real GDP Growth from FCI Last week, U.S. financial conditions tightened significantly following the White House’s announcement of “reciprocal” tariffs and China’s retaliatory measures, raising global concerns among investors and policymakers. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research