Valuation – S&P 500 Forward P/E Ratio and Subsequent 10-Year Annualized Returns Current S&P 500 valuation suggests anemic returns over the next 10 years. Image: Financial Times
Seasonality – Average Daily Path for S&P 500 since 1928 and Volatility Can investors expect a summer rally for U.S. equities? Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Output Gap (% of Potential GDP) Will the Fed take action to prevent the U.S. economy from overheating? Image: BofA Global Research
Earnings – S&P 500 YoY Operating EPS Growth Are earnings too good to ignore? Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
ISM Manufacturing vs. S&P 500 Performance More than 90% of the gains in the S&P500 Index have occurred when the ISM Manufacturing Index rises. Image: Alpine Macro
Consumer Spending Growth Since WWII Consumer spending is expected to increase significantly in 2021. Image: Oxford Economics
Emerging Market Stocks – EM Consumer Discretionary + Tech vs. EM Energy + Materials This chart highlights the secular rotation from healthcare/tech to energy/financials. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
S&P 500 Aggregate Sales Beat Aggregate sales of S&P 500 companies are expected to far exceed market expectations. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Performance – Rolling 3-Month Total Return Spread: Zombie Companies – S&P 500 Is zombie companies’ outperformance over? Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
Price Volatility: Bitcoin vs. U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Is the price of Bitcoin too volatile to be a store of value? Image: Alpine Macro
U.S. Core Inflation Expected Over the Next 21 Months (Leading Indicator) M2 velocity year-over-year tends to lead U.S. core CPI by 21 months (R² = 0.52 since 1996). It has been quite accurate for more than 20 years. Click the Image to Enlarge