Estimated Effect of Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire on Real Eurozone GDP A limited Russia-Ukraine ceasefire could raise Eurozone GDP by 0.2%, with a full peace agreement potentially boosting it by 0.5%, according to Goldman Sachs estimates. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Valuations Despite recent declines, U.S. stocks are still expensive when compared to historical standards, raising concerns about future returns amid economic uncertainty. Image: BCA Research
S&P 500 Yearly Returns The “rule of 10 best days” illustrates the dangers of market timing. Since 1990, missing just the 10 best trading days each year would have turned the S&P 500’s positive returns into substantial annual losses, averaging 12.5%. Image: Carson Investment Research
ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day March is like a bull’s worst nightmare—after the S&P 500 took a nosedive of 3.10% last week, bears threw a party that even bulls couldn’t crash, tossing confetti and gleefully shouting, “See? We told you it was coming!” Have a Great Week, Everyone! 😎
European Defense Stock Returns vs. U.S. Defense Stock Returns The trend of European defense stocks outperforming U.S. peers is likely to persist in the medium term due to sustained increases in military spending and geopolitical realignments favoring local suppliers. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Seasonality – S&P 500 Returns in March Since 1950, the second half of March has tended to be favorable for U.S. stocks. This historical pattern, combined with the fact that March marks the end of the first quarter, gives bulls reasons to be optimistic. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 vs. High-Grade U.S. Bonds vs. Junk U.S. Bonds While U.S. stocks generally have higher long-term returns, the current economic climate may favor junk U.S. bonds as a more stable investment option amidst fears of an equity downturn. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 Options: % of S&P 500 Listed Volume Expiring within 24 Hours Trading activity in ultra-short-term S&P 500 options, expiring within 24 hours, has skyrocketed to record levels as investors chase rapid profits, amplifying market volatility. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Volatility – Return vs. VIX While a higher VIX indicates increased market uncertainty, it can also present opportunities for investors to achieve better average returns by strategically navigating the volatility. Image: Alpine Macro
Equal-Weight vs. Aggregate S&P 500 Annualized 10-Year Returns Given the high concentration in today’s S&P 500, long-term investors may benefit from considering an equal-weight strategy in the current market environment. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
MSCI Ex-US Developed World Stock Price Index Relative to MSCI US Stock Price Index vs. US Real Dollar Index There is often an inverse relationship between the U.S. dollar and international stock markets, meaning that a peak in the dollar could make international stocks more appealing to investors. Image: Paulsen Perspectives