Category: Blog

Earnings Sentiment Current earnings sentiment is on an upward trajectory, with multiple indicators highlighting robust corporate performance and the potential for continued market growth. Image: TS Lombard

S&P 500 Index The current rally is underpinned by solid employment data and improving trade sentiment. If the S&P 500 can sustain levels above 6,000, the only major resistance ahead is the all-time high near 6,150. Image: Bloomberg

Return – S&P 500 Index Corrections of 10%-15% History shows that sharp early-year declines in the S&P 500—like those in 2009, 2020, and now 2025—often set the stage for powerful rebounds and strong year-end gains. Image: Carson Investment Research

U.S. NonFarm Employment Annual Growth The YOY job growth rate of 1.1% is a warning sign, as similar levels have coincided with periods just before or during recessions since 1950, supporting the case for the Fed to consider easing monetary policy soon. Image: Paulsen Perspectives

S&P 500 Equity Risk Premium With the U.S. equity risk premium at historically low levels, equity investors face a more challenging environment, as the risk-reward trade-off is less attractive than before. Image: The Daily Shot

U.S. Debt Held by Public as Share of GDP Rising U.S. federal debt could lead to higher interest payments, reduced investment and growth, fewer jobs, lower wages, and less flexibility for the government to respond to future challenges. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

MSCI All-Country World Index and RSI (14) Signs of overheating are emerging in global stocks, with technical and flow indicators nearing thresholds that have previously triggered sell signals. Image: Bloomberg

Length of Bull Markets and When They Started The current bull market, which began in October 2022, remains relatively young by historical standards and could persist much longer than bearish observers expect. Image: Carson Investment Research

Cumulative Flows in All Bitcoin Funds and Gold ETF Holdings The past month has seen a clear preference for Bitcoin over gold among investors, driven by a shift toward riskier assets, robust technical performance, and accelerating ETF inflows into Bitcoin. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Citi U.S. Economic Surprise Index The recent decline in the U.S. Citi Economic Surprise Index indicates that the economy is currently underperforming analysts’ expectations. Image: Real Investment Advice

U.S. Small-Cap Stocks – Russell 2000 vs. S&P 500 While U.S. small-cap stocks have notably underperformed large caps for an extended period, history suggests that such cycles are not unusual and are often followed by multi-year stretches of small-cap outperformance. Image: Bloomberg