Oil Price vs. U.S. 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate Spikes in oil prices typically push up headline inflation, but the effect on inflation expectations, especially at longer horizons, is limited and usually short-lived. Energy shocks often fade faster than people expect. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
U.S. Equity Index P/E Valuations vs. History At 21 times forward earnings for the S&P 500 and 25 for the Nasdaq 100, stocks aren’t cheap. But investors aren’t blinking, convinced the earnings momentum hasn’t faded yet. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Change in Global Financial Conditions Following 8 Largest Geopolitical Risk Shocks in the Middle East Even though past Middle East conflicts haven’t consistently tightened financial conditions, the global FCI is up 31bp. Sustained at this level, the squeeze could trim global GDP growth by roughly 0.3pp over the next year. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment…
Sentiment Indicator and Stock Positioning Goldman Sachs’ U.S. Equity Sentiment Indicator holds steady at 0.4, keeping it in neutral territory, a level that has often preceded a rebound in the S&P 500 over the next month. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Global Crude Oil Export Global crude exports have tumbled as conflict flares across the Middle East, rattling supply routes. Analysts see several weeks of disruption but some relief ahead if tensions cool. Image: J.P. Morgan Commodities Research
S&P 500 Price Target for 2026 Driven by expectations of robust earnings-per-share growth, Goldman Sachs is keeping its bullish view, projecting the S&P 500 to rise 12% to 7,600 this year. A few bumps on the road, though, seem hard to avoid. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Markets – Cumulative S&P 500 Growth vs. Cumulative Real GDP Growth vs. Cumulative S&P Sales Growth Years of Fed stimulus have taught investors to buy every dip, pushing U.S. markets skyward and away from the real economy. The disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street has never been clearer. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Four-Year Cycle for 2026 The recent choppy trade fits the script of the four-year presidential cycle’s midterm-year rhythm. From March to April, the S&P 500 often rallies toward its yearly peak before sentiment softens into the midterms. Image: Ned Davis Research
Mega-Cap Growth & Tech Positioning At the 43rd percentile, positioning reflects a market that has eased slightly below neutral on mega-cap growth and tech, well away from both extreme optimism or panic. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Global Value vs. Growth This year, investors have shifted from expensive tech into value plays. But lower rates could revive growth stocks as cheaper money boosts the appeal of future profits. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
AAII Sentiment Survey U.S. retail investors are still playing it safe, with the AAII bull-bear spread stuck below zero. With so much uncertainty still in the air, that’s no surprise. Sentiment usually lags until there’s more clarity. Image: The Daily Chartbook