Median 2-Week S&P 500 Returns Since 1950, the first half of September has been a seasonally weak period for the S&P 500, ranking as the sixth weakest half-month in the annual cycle. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. IG Credit Spreads Tight IG credit spreads signal both confidence and caution—they reflect strong fundamentals but also potential complacency. Active monitoring of credit spreads is crucial for effective risk management in this environment. Image: Topdown Charts
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities The probability of U.S. recession stands at 0.80%. When this recession indicator exceeds 5% (red line), history suggests that the probability of recession increases significantly. The chart shows the smoothed U.S. recession probabilities indicator on a log scale. Smoothed U.S. recession probabilities are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to…
U.S. Household Net Worth as % of Disposal Personal Income While the U.S. household net worth has risen to historic levels due to assets like stocks and real estate, AI-driven financial gains mainly benefit the richest, increasing the wealth gap. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Consumer Confidence in Higher Stock Prices vs. S&P 500 Trailing Valuations While S&P 500 valuations may be poor tools for short-term timing, they are useful indicators of market sentiment and risk. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 and 20-Day Moving Average Since April, after tariff-related lows, the S&P 500 has used the 20-day moving average as a floor during pullbacks, continuing its upward trend and sustaining a bullish outlook. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC
Equity Market Concentration – Market Capitalization of 10 Largest Companies as Share of S&P 500 Total The S&P 500’s heavy weighting toward its top ten stocks, which exceeds their earnings share, exposes the index to greater risks from volatility, limited diversification, and sector imbalances. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation – S&P 500 NTM P/E By historical standards, both the S&P 500 cap-weighted and equal-weighted indices are currently expensive, reflecting elevated stock market valuations. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
GS U.S. Financial Conditions Index Easing financial conditions boost U.S. growth through increased spending and investment. However, it remains crucial to monitor inflation risks closely. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. ETF and Mutual Fund Flows Investors continue to favor liquidity and lower-volatility assets—such as bonds and money market funds—over equities, due to ongoing economic and geopolitical uncertainties and the current interest rate environment. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Health Care Sector Weight in the S&P 500 With a 9% weight in the S&P 500 and an earnings share of 10%, the health care sector represents an important, though not dominant, part of the index. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research