Proportion of S&P 500 Beating Earnings Estimate The proportion of U.S. companies exceeding earnings estimates remained above the historical average in Q1 2025, reflecting ongoing earnings resilience. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Share of S&P 500 Compagnies Providing Forward Earnings Guidance During Reporting Season The trend of fewer S&P 500 companies providing forward guidance is likely to persist as long as macroeconomic and policy uncertainties remain elevated. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
AAII U.S. Investor Sentiment Bull – Bear Spread The AAII bull-bear spread remains deeply negative, with a current reading of -38.30%, reflecting historically low optimism and high pessimism among U.S. individual investors. Image: The Daily Shot
S&P 500 Consecutive Days of Gains Although there are valid reasons for caution, the U.S. stock rebound is driven by strong momentum. Historically, momentum-driven rallies tend to persist longer than expected, even during major macroeconomic challenges. Image: Bloomberg
Valuation – The Buffett Indicator Although the Buffett Indicator has fallen from record highs, making U.S. stocks appear more attractive, it still sits well above its historical average and past market lows. Image: Bloomberg
Fed Funds Rate – Target Probabilities at the Fed’s FOMC Meeting Traders show little optimism for a Fed rate cut at the May 7, 2025 FOMC meeting, with market expectations assigning just a 4.4% probability of a 25 bps reduction. Image: CME Group
Investor Sentiment – U.S. Market Greed/Fear Index A Fear & Greed Index score of 55.95 points to a neutral market sentiment, indicating that investors are neither particularly fearful nor greedy. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Performance Recovering 50% of Bear Market With the S&P 500 regaining half of its near-bear market losses in 2025, history strongly suggests that the lows may already be behind us. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has always produced positive returns one year later. Image: Carson Investment Research
Insider Transactions Ratio With the Insider Transactions Ratio returning to bullish territory, corporate insiders are demonstrating increased confidence-often considered a positive signal for the market’s direction. Image: Barron’s
Consolidated Equity Positioning Consolidated equity positioning remains low at the 12th percentile. Should trade tensions ease, significant upside potential may emerge as investor confidence and positioning return to normal. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Quarterly YoY EPS Growth Relative to Consensus Expectations S&P 500 Q1 2025 earnings growth has substantially outpaced initial expectations, driven by robust results from key sectors and widespread positive surprises. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research