U.S. High Yield Credit Spreads Tight high-yield spreads signal strong market confidence, but they also raise red flags by potentially masking underlying vulnerabilities and feeding investor complacency by making risks seem less significant than they are. Image: Topdown Charts
Asset Bubbles – Bitcoin, Equities and Bonds While caution is always warranted and some assets look frothy, extreme market bubbles are not apparent right now—though pockets of overvaluation do remain. Image: Deutsche Bank Research
S&P 500 Returns After Five Month Win Streaks History is on the bulls’ side: going back to 1950, five-month winning streaks in the S&P 500 have led to gains 93.3% of the time over the following year, with an average return of 12.6%. Image: Carson Investment Research
Dow Jones Industrial Average Around First Fed Rate Cut In the absence of recession, U.S. equities typically perform strongly in the year after the Fed’s first rate cut, with cyclical sectors benefiting most from improved financial conditions and economic expansion. Image: Ned Davis Research
U.S. Equity Sentiment Indicator vs. Rolling 6-Month S&P 500 Return While Goldman Sachs’ U.S. Equity Sentiment Indicator sits at -0.3, investors still have cash to put to work, leaving room for a cautiously bullish outlook in the near term. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Consecutive Trading Days Without a 2% Drop in the S&P 500 While the S&P 500’s 108-session run without a 2% drop is striking, history offers several precedents of calm periods that were just as long—or even longer. Image: Bloomberg
Full-Year Real GDP Growth Trade barriers, shifting immigration policies, and broader uncertainty are expected to keep the U.S. economy from reaching its potential this year, despite ongoing technological investments. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Fed Fund Rate Forecasts Nomura projects two further rate cuts this year, followed by three more in March, June, and September of next year, bringing the terminal rate to 2.875%. Image: Nomura
AAII Investor Sentiment Bull Minus Bear Spread The AAII bull-bear spread points to a balanced mood among U.S. retail investors who expect stock prices to decline in the near term—a condition that could set the stage for a sharper move in either direction. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Index Returns in September Late September is often a banana-peel moment for U.S. stocks, when markets have a tendency to slip. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Trailing 4-Quarter Net Profit Margin (Ex. Financials) Over the past 35 years, the S&P 500’s profit margin has climbed from 5% to 12% and has held at high levels in recent years, with forecasts pointing to continued growth in 2026 and 2027. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research