Category: Blog

Sovereign Ratings Map Interesting map of sovereign ratings across the world in July 2019, using Moody’s ratings. Source: Moody’s Sovereign Ratings, Aswath Damodaran

S&P 500 Average Performance -2Y/+2Y with U.S. Yield Curve Inversion History tells us that on average, the S&P 500 peaks 42 weeks after (10Y-3M) yield curve inversion. Image: Pictet Asset Management

Dividend Yield of S&P 500 Components Yields on equities seem competitive vs. U.S. Treasuries, but equity risk does not disappear because a company pays a dividend. Image: Bespoke Investment Group

Oil Prices and OPEC Market Share OPEC’s market share is falling. Interesting chart showing oil prices and OPEC market share. Image: Morgan Stanley Research

Probability of U.S. Recession Over Next 12 Months The probability of U.S. recession over the next 12 months based on economic indicators stands at 45.6%. Image: J.P. Morgan

Buybacks Are the Source of the Rally in the Stock Market since 2009 But as trade tensions and economic slowdown worry U.S. firms, stock buybacks declined last quarter. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research

Demographics – U.S. Population Aging and Pension Demand for Bonds This chart suggests that U.S. pension demand for bonds is going to increase, as the proportion of 65+ rises. Image: Oxford Economics, Macrobond

Zombies Walking Amongst the Smallest Companies Interesting chart showing the rise of zombie companies and their market capitalization. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC

Time from 2s-10s Yield Curve Inversion until Recession Starts Recession tends to start in one to three years after the yield curve inversion. The yield curve is only one indicator among others of an economic puzzle. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research

Heightened Correlations to U.S. Treasury Implied Volatility (MOVE) Followed by Higher Yields This chart suggests that balanced portfolios could suffer as U.S. Treasury yields generally rise after heightened correlation. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC

3-Month Rate 1-Year Forward vs. 3-Month Leads U.S. GDP This chart suggests that the 1y3m-3m slope leads U.S. GDP. The 1y3m-3m slope has turned down sharply and is informative for year-head growth. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch