One of the Best Indicators to Monitor for Signs a U.S. Recession Is Over The probability of being unemployed in a given month in the United States, by dividing the average initial claims for unemployment insurance by the total number of people working, is one of the best indicators to monitor for signs a U.S.…
What Indicators to Watch for Signs a U.S. Recession Is Coming? 1) In recent history, a recession occurs about 12 to 18 months after the spread between the 30-year and the 3-month treasury yields turns negative (red arrow). When an inverted yield curve occurs, short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates. It suggests that the long-term…
The Top Wealthiest Countries in 2018 The United States is the world’s largest wealth market with $60.7 trillion in 2018. Inequality: you may also like “Lower Incomes Paid the Highest Price.” Image: Visual Capitalist
Share of Market Value in Bloomberg Barclays USD IG Since 1990, the amount of BBB-rated bonds has doubled. This is only one step away from junk bonds. Keep in mind that many investment grade investors own BBB-rated bonds, but they are not allowed to hold junk-rated bonds. So, any drop in the credit ratings could…
Stocks Performance Across Interest Rate Environments This chart shows the excess return over S&P 500 in terms of rising and falling interest rates. Image: Greenline Partners LLC
The 10% Richest Households in the U.S. Own Almost 70% of All Wealth The 10% richest households in the US used to own 60% of all wealth. Now they own almost 70%. Inequality: you may also like “U.S. Net Worth by Wealth Bracket.” Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research
How to Double your Money in the Market In this video, Josh Brown, financial advisor at Ritholtz Wealth Management LLC, explains why the power of compounding can help you double your money. You may also like “The Long-Term Impact of Compounded Returns” and why Albert Einstein said “Compound Interest Is the Eighth Wonder of the World.”…
What About the Predictive Power of the Fed? As former Fed policymaker Narayana Kocherlakota said in 2016: “Don’t rely on FOMC forecasts of future fed funds rates.” Why? Because the economy is often shaken by crises and does not evolve as expected. Image: Hedgeye Risk Management LLC
The Credit Cycle Is Leading the Economic Cycle This great chart shows that an economic slowdows risk is rising. When delinquency rates on consumer loans reach a low, there’s a high probability of a recession on the horizon. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research
Higher Tariffs on U.S.-China Trade Could Hurt World GDP This chart shows the impact and uncertainty by 2021-2022 from maintaining 25% tariffs and more. Image: Bloomberg
Which Equity Market Has Outperformed Since the Beginning of the Trade War? The US equity market is the winner the last two years. Most other major equity markets have experienced significant declines. Image: Fundstrat