Category: Blog

Is the US Expansion Fizzling Out? This chart shows that business investment and consumer expenditure decline in the United States. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research

S&P 500 Index vs. Earnings per Share since 1989 The consensus S&P 500 earnings for the next 12 months has increased from $173 to $175. Image: Jeroen Blokland

“You Need to Divorce your Mind from the Crowd…” –Warren Buffett Quote of the day: “You need to divorce your mind from the crowd. The herd mentality causes all these IQ’s to become paralyzed. I don’t think investors are now acting more intelligently, despite the intelligence. Smart doesn’t always equal rational. To be a successful…

Utilities-to-Gold & Silver Mining Stocks Ratio Since 1990 S&P 500 Utility Sector to Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index hits all-time high. Image: Crescat Capital LLC

Recession Indicator to Watch: Net Domestic Investment to GDP Net Domestic Investment to GDP is in a long-term downtrend since 1950. It is not a timing indicator for predicting the end of business cycles. But historicammy, before recessions, it tends to peak (red arrow) and then decline (black arrow). Currently, Net Domestic Investment to GDP has a…

One of the Best Indicators to Monitor for Signs a U.S. Recession Is Over The probability of being unemployed in a given month in the United States, by dividing the average initial claims for unemployment insurance by the total number of people working, is one of the best indicators to monitor for signs a U.S.…

What Indicators to Watch for Signs a U.S. Recession Is Coming? 1) In recent history, a recession occurs about 12 to 18 months after the spread between the 30-year and the 3-month treasury yields turns negative (red arrow). When an inverted yield curve occurs, short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates. It suggests that the long-term…

The Top Wealthiest Countries in 2018 The United States is the world’s largest wealth market with $60.7 trillion in 2018. Inequality: you may also like “Lower Incomes Paid the Highest Price.” Image: Visual Capitalist

Share of Market Value in Bloomberg Barclays USD IG Since 1990, the amount of BBB-rated bonds has doubled. This is only one step away from junk bonds.  Keep in mind that many investment grade investors own BBB-rated bonds, but they are not allowed to hold junk-rated bonds. So, any drop in the credit ratings could…

Stocks Performance Across Interest Rate Environments This chart shows the excess return over S&P 500 in terms of rising and falling interest rates. Image: Greenline Partners LLC

How to Double your Money in the Market In this video, Josh Brown, financial advisor at Ritholtz Wealth Management LLC, explains why the power of compounding can help you double your money. You may also like “The Long-Term Impact of Compounded Returns” and why Albert Einstein said “Compound Interest Is the Eighth Wonder of the World.”…