Real GDP vs. Real Fed Funds Rate One of our most favorite charts is the real GDP vs. the real Fed funds rate (adjusted for inflation). Historically, recessions begin when the real Fed Funds rate exceeds GDP growth. We are far from that today. So, this cycle should not end any time soon. Real Fed…
Real Fed Funds Rate Real Fed funds rate is a key indicative factor, because it’s a very good measure of how tight or loose monetary policy is. Real Fed funds rate is the “true cost” of borrowing money. Recessions have always been preceded by a substantial tightening of monetary policy, which, in real terms, matter…
The stock market vs. the economy explained Josh Brown, CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management, explains the relationship between the stock market and the economy. His analogy is quite simple: the dog is the stock market and the man walking the dog is the economy. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=59im9CtR9YI
“An investment in knowledge pays the best interest.” –Benjamin Franklin Knowledge helps you make much better decisions. As Albert Einstein said, “Once you stop learning, you start dying.”
Dalio Says U.S. Two Years From Downturn as Tax Cut Benefit Fades Hedge fund manager Ray Dalio speaks with Erik Schatzker about the next downturn and the impact of tax cuts. He also discusses debt cycles and the fact that central banks should control the level of debt and take responsibility for bubbles. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X1xcQKIl850
Should Investors Trust Markets or Economic Data? Nancy Tengler, Butcher Joseph Chief Investment Strategist, and Brian Levitt, Oppenheimer senior investment strategist, discuss the economic data. They are mixed, but that’s good news. Equities are going higher and investors should have FOMO (Fear of Missing Out).
Yield Curve Inversion A yield curve inversion is a necessary condition for a recession, but it is not a sufficient condition. We also need a widening of credit spreads and higher real interest rates. And currently, the long end of the yield curve has a normal upward slope. You may also like “Why the Current Business…
Golden Cross Materializes in S&P 500 Price Action JPMorgan’s Philip Camporeale and David Kotok, CIO at Cumberland Advisors, discuss the late cycle euphoria. Rally in equities continues until it stops!
The words and wisdom of investing legend Jack Bogle Jack Bogle, founder and CEO of Vanguard, is credited with creating the first index fund. He did as much for investors than any Nobel prize winner.
What Will Cause The Next Recession – Robert Shiller On Human Behavior Robert Shiller is a professor at Yale University and Nobel Prize winner in Economics in 2013. What are the biggest risks right now on the next recession? 1) Housing market, 2) Bull stock market, 3) Interest rates and 4) Record expansion. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rUYk2DA8PH8
Treasury Bond Maven Robert Kessler Warns of Recession Ahead & Where to Take Shelter Robert Kessler is founder and CEO of The Kessler Companies and manager of fixed-income portfolios. He discusses with Consuelo Mack on WealthTrack why a recession is coming.