Category: Blog

CTAs Allocation in Oil Given the current market climate, Commodity Trading Advisors have notably raised their exposure to oil. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

Spot Gold Gold’s status as a safe-haven asset is under the spotlight, with its price closely tied to geopolitical developments in the Middle East as well as broader macroeconomic trends. Image: Bloomberg

Systematic Equity Positioning Systematic strategies continue to adopt a cautious stance, as equity positioning remains at the 24th percentile amid ongoing market uncertainty. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

Estimated U.S. Recession Probability Despite recent improvements, the risk of a U.S. recession within the next 12 months remains above the historical average, driven by ongoing tariff-related uncertainties and their economic repercussions. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Brent Crude Oil vs. S&P 500 Index A short-term spike in oil prices may cause market jitters, but only a sustained, significant increase would meaningfully affect U.S. stocks and the broader economy; currently, economic and equity impacts remain limited. Image: Bloomberg

Average Post Election Year for S&P 500 In post-election years, the S&P 500 often experiences weakness in late June and early July, driven mainly by seasonal market behavior. Image: Carson Investment Research

CTAs Exposure to Gold Commodity Trading Advisors have reduced their gold allocations but remain net long on the metal, indicating a tactical repositioning rather than a fundamental bearish shift. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

S&P 500 Weekly Announced Buybacks The slowdown in share buybacks during blackout periods reduces a key source of equity demand, which, in an overbought market, could worsen any weakness until buybacks resume in late July. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

The 2009 S&P 500 Bull Market Compared With This One Near-bear market corrections in the middle of year three are common in long bull markets, reflecting normal consolidation phases within a longer-term upward trend, as seen in the 2009 bull market and the ongoing one. Image: Carson Investment Research

S&P 500 and Combination of Forward PE, VIX, Bullish Sentiment The Euphoriameter, which combines forward P/E, VIX, and bullish sentiment, remains elevated and suggests caution based on cycles analysis. Image: Topdown Charts

Risk Appetite Indicator Level and Momentum Factors The GS risk appetite indicator’s current risk-on signal suggests a constructive market environment, with investors willing to take on risk in anticipation of sustained positive returns and economic stability. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research