Hyperscalers Realized Return on Invested Capital Hyperscalers’ ROIC has dropped from 40% to 25%. But the bigger concern is that the AI buildout may be less profitable than reported, with shadow debt and circular financing emerging beneath the surface. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Equity Risk Premium The equity risk premium has turned negative, putting U.S. stocks in a tricky situation: higher risk for lower expected returns. That’s a tough pitch, especially if earnings or sentiment falter. Image: Real Investment Advice
Performance Based on Congress Makeup – Average S&P 500 Annual Return Since 1951, U.S. stocks have generally performed better under Republican-led Congresses than under Democratic-led ones. The best annual returns came when Congress was split, averaging 15.1%, as gridlock limited major policy shifts. Image: Carson Investment Research
Seasonality – S&P 500 Cycle Composite for 2026 The S&P 500 Cycle Composite points to a constructive year-end. After the early-year correction, much of the usual midterm-year weakness may already be behind the market. Image: Ned Davis Research
S&P 500 – Short Interest in SPY U.S. Equity ETF Short interest in SPY (S&P 500 ETF) remains near historic lows, suggesting investors are positioned for gains, not a sharp reversal. That leaves little short-covering fuel to power the next rally. Image: J.P. Morgan Flows and Liquidity
S&P 500 Return on Equity (ROE) S&P 500 ROE is rising, but investors are beginning to question whether today’s exceptional returns are sustainable. For now, earnings expectations remain supportive. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Gross Buyback Growth Despite surging AI investment and increased equity issuance, corporate buybacks have picked up speed. S&P 500 gross buybacks jumped 15% year-over-year in the first half of 2026. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Average S&P 500 Stock Earnings Day Move Options markets are pricing in an average move of 5.4% for S&P 500 stocks after earnings reports this quarter. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Large Cap Sector Positioning MCG & Tech positioning has started to cool, but the trade remains crowded compared with the rest of the market. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500’s Average Annualized Return over the Next 10 Years, by Starting CAPE High starting valuations have often meant leaner returns. When the CAPE ratio was above 30, stocks gained just 1.4% a year on average over the following decade. With the CAPE now at 41.8, could stocks trail bonds for another decade? Image: Real…
Pullbacks and Returns a Year Off the Lows for the S&P 500 Index Based on the 4-Year Presidential Cycle Since 1950, the S&P 500 has fallen an average of 17.5% during midterm years, the deepest swoon in the presidential cycle. But the market’s low has been a launchpad: one year later, stocks have always been…