Total Return Performance (USD Terms) of Selected Assets in August Precious metals stole the show in August, with silver and gold each climbing double digits as money rotated into havens amid U.0.S debt worries, dollar softness, and a shifting Fed narrative. Image: Deutsche Bank
10-Year Government Bond Yield Sovereign bonds are selling off worldwide, not just in one market, as investors are concerned about higher energy prices, stickier inflation, tighter policy and a wave of government borrowing. Image: Alpine Macro
S&P 500 Average Monthly Performance Under President Trump September seasonality is flashing green. Under President Trump, U.S. stocks have closed higher in September in four out of five years, giving bulls reason to smile. Image: Carson Investment Research
Seasonality – Monthly Return Stats for the S&P 500 Call it the September drag. Since 1964, the S&P 500 has lost an average 0.6% in the month and finished higher in just 47% of Septembers. Can the market defy the script in 2026? Image: Topdown Charts
Crypto Fund Flows Last week, cryptocurrency funds saw their biggest weekly inflows since May, driven largely by U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. Institutional money is back, and so is the risk appetite. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Volatility Control Funds Estimated Equity Allocation Vol-control funds are already stretched at the 95th percentile, leaving little room for another wave of buying. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 and Combination of Forward PE, VIX, Bullish Sentiment The Euphoriameter, a composite of forward P/E, the VIX, and bullish sentiment, remains deep in euphoria territory. When the crowd is this bullish, the risk is today’s bulls turning into tomorrow’s sellers on the next bad headline. Image: Topdown Charts
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities The probability of U.S. recession stands at 0.60%. When this recession indicator exceeds 5% (red line), history suggests that the probability of recession increases significantly. The chart shows the smoothed U.S. recession probabilities indicator on a log scale. Smoothed U.S. recession probabilities are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to…
Seasonality – S&P 500 Index Average Monthly Returns History paints September as the worst month for U.S. stocks, with the weakest average return since 1950. But this year, August, typically sluggish in midterm years, is already up 3%. Do the odds look different this time? Image: Carson Investment Research
VIX Seasonality Summer calm rarely lasts. U.S. stock volatility usually kicks in about now. Does this time break the pattern? Image: Topdown Charts
Distributions of Returns of S&P 500 Since 1928 The S&P 500 has run well ahead of its long‑term median over the past years, but that kind of strength will be tough to repeat from today’s valuation levels. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research