Sectors Positioning (High Frequency) Positioning in mega-cap growth and tech remains underweight, and even more so in cyclicals, sitting at the 7th percentile. A hint of good news could see investors swing sharply the other way. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Median 2-Week S&P 500 Returns The conflict in the Middle East has added a layer of uncertainty, but U.S. stocks tend to find traction in the back half of April. That seasonal boost helps, but it doesn’t fully blunt the shock of the conflict. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Mega-Cap Growth & Tech (Market Cap and Earnings) The tech pullback has left a bigger disconnect from earnings expectations. Once the mood shifts, risk appetite could roar back and drive stocks sharply higher. Fundamentals haven’t changed much, just the mood. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
U.S. Dollar Index The U.S. dollar index slipping back below its 200-day moving average gives bears more reason to cheer, as the recent rebound loses momentum and the broader downtrend reasserts itself. Image: The Daily Shot
S&P 500 Forward Returns After Extreme AAII Bearish Sentiment Peaks Since 1990, when the AAII bearish sentiment exceeded 45%, as it did recently, the S&P 500 has delivered strong 12‑month gains, averaging more than 18%. Once again, the market looks ready to climb just when investors least expect it. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Up 7 Days in a Row and Up >7% After seven straight days of gains and a jump of more than 7%, history points to more good news ahead: median six‑month gains of 18.2% have followed similar streaks since 1950, putting a smile on bulls’ faces. Image: Carson Investment Research
Gold Futures Positioning Despite the drop in gold prices in March, futures positioning held steady, suggesting that investors were buying downside protection rather than making a strong directional bet. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Financials Positioning vs. Earnings Growth Positioning in financials is still unusually light, leaving ample room to build exposure. Such caution looks misplaced given the upbeat consensus on earnings growth. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Evolution of S&P 500 Consensus Earnings Optimism is building on Wall Street. Analysts have lifted their S&P 500 bottom-up earnings forecasts for Q2 2026, betting on stronger corporate profit momentum through the year. It’s encouraging to see sentiment turning more positive. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Impact of U.S. Quarter-Over-Quarter Annualized GDP Growth The boost from the 2025 fiscal bill may be short-lived, as the conflict in the Middle East drives oil prices higher and curbs U.S. growth prospects. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Average Return After Recapturing 200-Day Moving Average From Below History favors the bulls: when the S&P 500 has dropped below and regained its 200‑day moving average since 2000, it has averaged a 15% rally in the following 12 months. History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes. Image: Real Investment Advice