Probability of U.S. Recession As Priced Across Asset Classes The S&P 500 is pricing in about a 25% chance of a recession, which is lower than signals from copper prices or the yield curve, but higher than the recession probabilities implied by global equities or high-yield credit markets. Analysts often use the current percentage change…
S&P 500 Index vs. 200 and 40-Week Moving Averages Despite recent volatility driven by trade concerns, as long as the S&P 500 index is trading above the 200-week moving average, the secular bull market remains intact. Image: Real Investment Advice
Valuation – S&P 500 12-Month Forward P/E Ratio The S&P 500’s forward P/E ratio of 20x places it above historical averages, reinforcing the view that current valuations are not historically cheap. Image: The Daily Shot
ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day The S&P 500’s 7.8% drop in Trump’s first 100 days has bulls asking if this market comes with a money-back guarantee. Meanwhile, bears are finally coming out of hibernation-and they look hungry! Have a Great Day, Everyone! 😎
S&P 500 – 2022 Correction vs. 2025 Correction The U.S. stock market did bounce as the technical composite dipped below 20, and the rally that began this past week could extend further, particularly if positive news emerges. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Performance When There is a 6-Day Win Streak During a Calendar Year Bulls once again have reason to smile: a six-day S&P 500 winning streak has preceded positive annual performance in 15 out of 16 years since 2005, with 2018 being the only exception. Image: Carson Investment Research
ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day With the S&P 500 down 5.45% year-to-date, bulls are making a comeback with the slogan “Make The Stock Market Great Again!”-because apparently, even the market needs a little political pep talk to bounce back from its midlife crisis! Happy “Hump” Day, Everyone! 😎
Impact of Policy Uncertainty on S&P 500 Cash Use S&P 500 buybacks may face significant impacts from policy uncertainty. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Presidential Approval Rating vs. Consumer Confidence Trump’s approval exceeds Biden’s late-term lows, but deteriorating consumer confidence’s predictive power signals substantial downside risk as economic anxieties translate into political consequences. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Returns the First 100 Days of a New Term The S&P 500’s 7.8% decline during Donald Trump’s first 100 days in office represents the worst start to a president’s term since Richard Nixon’s in 1973. Image: Yahoo Finance
ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day With the S&P 500 surging 4.59% last week, bulls are so bullish that they’re already heading for the moon and beyond, convinced the S&P 500 will blast off by the end of 2025! Have a Great Day, Everyone! 😎