Longest Economic Expansion in U.S. History Since the Great Recession, the U.S. economy has grown for 121 consecutive months. This is the longest economic expansion in American history. You may also like “Strength of Economic Expansions.” Image: Ryan Detrick, LPL Financial LLC
Economic Expansions Don’t Die of Old Age Today, the current economic cycle is the longest expansion. Image: Oxford Economics
Strength of Economic Expansions The current business cycle is the longest expansion, but it’s also the weakest. Picture Source: ClearBridge Investments
U.S. Expansions and Recessions The coronavirus recession lasted only two months, which is by far the shortest U.S. recession on record. Image: Oxford Economics
U.S. Federal Deficit and Balance Sheet Expansion Is the U.S. fiscal and monetary policy response to the COVID-19 crisis appropriate to ensure continued economic growth? Image: Deutsche Bank
Weaker Wage Growth in the Current Expansion Interesting chart showing that wage growth is much weaker than it was in the late 1990s. Image: Economic Policy Institute
Economic Impact of U.S. Recessions This chart shows that the economic impact of most U.S. recessions is relatively small. The average expansion increased GDP by +24% vs. S&P 500 +117%, and the average recession reduced GDP by less than 2% vs. S&P 500 +3%. The average expansion is 67 months and the average recession is…
Dow Jones Industrial Average Around First Fed Rate Cut In the absence of recession, U.S. equities typically perform strongly in the year after the Fed’s first rate cut, with cyclical sectors benefiting most from improved financial conditions and economic expansion. Image: Ned Davis Research
Tariffs Impact on YoY U.S. GDP Growth Over the next three years, higher tariffs are expected to slow U.S. GDP growth by 1.7%, as they raise costs for consumers and businesses, fuel inflation, and drag on economic expansion. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
MSCI Cyclicals/Defensives Return During anticipated economic expansions, investors lean towards cyclical stocks for their growth potential, while defensive stocks serve as a buffer during economic downturns. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Inflation – U.S. CPI Forecasts With inflation high, the Fed’s interest rate cut decisions require a delicate balance between price stability, economic expansion and employment support. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy