Citi Economic Surprise Indexes

Citi Economic Surprise Indexes The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) for the world economies is on the rise, outpacing the U.S. CESI, indicating that economic data for the world economies are surpassing expectations to a greater extent than in the United States. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management

U.S. Private Sector Financial Assets % of GDP

U.S. Private Sector Financial Assets % of GDP The disconnect between the value of U.S. financial assets and GDP gives rise to concerns regarding the growing wealth gap, potential systemic risks, and economic stability, while also presenting policy challenges. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

U.S. Dollar vs. S&P 500 Index Forward Price/Earnings

U.S. Dollar vs. S&P 500 Index Forward Price/Earnings Keeping a close eye on the correlation between the U.S. dollar and S&P 500 valuation multiples is essential, especially considering the potential end of the greenback’s bull market cycle. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management

S&P 500 Index – Estimated Next 12-Month Operating Margin

S&P 500 Index – Estimated Next 12-Month Operating Margin The decline in S&P 500 operating margins excluding the Magnificent Seven persists, suggesting that margin headwinds could remain challenging. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management

Russell 2000 Technology Sector Relative to Total Index

Russell 2000 Technology Sector Relative to Total Index U.S. small-cap technology stocks have exhibited a noteworthy level of outperformance within the universe of U.S. small-cap stocks, which can be attributed to higher growth potential and the ability to innovate and disrupt traditional industries. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management

U.S. Equities – S&P 500 Equal Weight Index/S&P 500 Index

U.S. Equities – S&P 500 Equal Weight Index/S&P 500 Index The performance difference between indexes presents opportunities. Could the S&P 500 equal-weighted index potentially outperform the S&P 500 cap-weighted index this year? Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management

U.S. Bank Reserves as a Percent of GDP

U.S. Bank Reserves as a Percent of GDP As bank reserves relative to GDP gradually return to normal levels, they will no longer contribute to the upward momentum of equity valuation multiples. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management

U.S. Breakeven Inflation Rate

U.S. Breakeven Inflation Rate There are indications that inflation pressures are reemerging, and investors are anticipating higher inflation in the future. This is reflected in the rise of two-year U.S. breakeven inflation expectations. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management

S&P 500 Valuation Matrix (12-Month Forward EPS and P/E Multiple)

S&P 500 Valuation Matrix (12-Month Forward EPS and P/E Multiple) According to Morgan Stanley, U.S. equity market gains in 2024 may stall due to high forward multiples and ambitious earnings forecasts for the next 12 months. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management