30 Largest Stocks as a Percentage of S&P 500 Market Capitalization The 30 largest stocks account for 53% of the S&P 500’s total market capitalization, raising concerns about the index’s concentration and potential risks. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
S&P 500 Index Max Pullback per Calendar Year One of the most important factors in building wealth is being ready for market fluctuations. Since 1980, the S&P 500 index has experienced an average peak-to-trough pullback of 14.2% within a given year. Image: Carson Investment Research
Nasdaq-100 Index, Short Interest as a Percent of Shares Outstanding The falling short interest in the Nasdaq 100 is seen as a potential bearish signal, as it reduces a source of support for the market and makes stocks more vulnerable to negative news and price declines. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Ownership Breakdown of the U.S. Equity Market (Share of Corporate Equity Market) U.S. households hold the largest share of the equity market, reflecting confidence in stocks. However, ownership is very concentrated, with the wealthiest 10% owning about 93% of all U.S. stocks held by households. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 vs. S&P 500 Equal-Weight The S&P 500 cap-weighted index return premium has reached extreme levels. Should investors now favor the S&P 500 equal-weighted index over the cap-weighted index? Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
U.S. Tech Valuations – Forward PE Ratio U.S. tech sector’s valuations have surpassed post-COVID highs. However, historical precedent suggests that these high valuations may be challenging to sustain going forward. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Valuation – S&P 500 12-Month Forward P/E With a forward P/E of 21, the S&P 500’s current valuation is in the 90th percentile compared to the past 100 years. While high valuations may not immediately affect stock prices, they can impact them when market conditions shift. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
S&P 500 Price Target In its base case scenario, Morgan Stanley predicts that the S&P 500 will reach a level of 5,400 by mid-2025. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
U.S. Private Sector Financial Assets % of GDP The disconnect between the value of U.S. financial assets and GDP raises concerns about the widening wealth gap, potential systemic risks, and economic stability, while also posing policy challenges. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
S&P 500 Index vs. U.S. Citi Economic Surprise Index The S&P 500 Index and the U.S. Citi Economic Surprise Index are often closely correlated. But right now, bad news is good news, until it’s not. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management