U.S. Yield Curves The yield curve’s normalization following its 2022 inversion eased recession worries for now, but historical patterns still suggest caution post-uninversion. Image: Real Investment Advice

WTI Crude Oil and Recessions When oil prices surge, sometimes doubling, it’s often a red flag for the U.S. economy. History shows these jumps tend to foreshadow recessions, making crude a key gauge for investors…

Price Performance of Gold Before and After the Start of Armed Conflicts When conflict breaks out in the Middle East, gold typically shines as a tactical safe haven, with prices jumping as traders add a…

Effect of a 10% Increase in Oil Prices on Inflation A 10% rise in crude oil prices would add modestly to headline inflation over the year. But if higher prices persist, the inflation effect would…

Global GS Financial Conditions Index Global financial conditions tightened by 14 basis points, which typically dampens spending and investment by households and firms, especially when triggered by geopolitical shocks like the current Middle East escalation.…

Seasonality – S&P 500 Index Average Monthly Returns March and April have a history of treating U.S. stocks well, as seasonal tailwinds lift sentiment. Maybe a dose of spring optimism is making the rounds on…

S&P 500 Price Reaction to Previous Military Escalations The headlines may be dramatic, but the market impact is likely to be muted. U.S. equities wobble at first, then settle once investors refocus on fundamentals. In…

ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index U.S. factory activity expanded in February for the second straight month, with the ISM Manufacturing Index hitting 52.4 and easily beating forecasts for 51.5. That’s a good sign…

S&P 500 – Performance of Largest 10 Stocks vs. Next 40 Stocks The S&P 500’s top 10 giants are lagging the next 40 stocks this year, contributing to the cap-weighted index’s weak gains amid high…

AAII Asset Allocation In February, U.S. retail investors dumped stocks, shifted into bonds, and cut cash holdings to their lowest since late 2021 as confidence in equities faded and markets braced for a bumpier spring.…

S&P 500 Index Performance After Geopolitical and Major Historical Events Major geopolitical shocks can rattle investors, but U.S. stocks have a long track record of bouncing back, with median six‑month gains over 5% since World…