Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of U.S. recession in 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, stands at 25.7%. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index Powell’s speech has put the U.S. dollar gauge under pressure, confirming a test of technical support is underway amid growing market bets on imminent Fed rate cuts to address softer employment…
Fed Funds Rate – Target Probabilities at the Fed’s FOMC Meeting Traders exhibit some optimism for a Fed rate cut at the September 17, 2025 FOMC meeting, with a 75% probability assigned to a 25…
Inflation – Fed Funds Rate and CPI Since the federal funds rate currently exceeds the inflation rate by a significant margin, monetary policy is considered too tight, which is why markets are eagerly expecting rate…
S&P 500 Return After the Fed Waits Between 5-12 Months to Cut Since 1970, whenever the Fed has waited between 5 and 12 months to cut rates, the US stock market has delivered positive returns…
Valuation – PE10 Ratio USA vs. Rest of the World Investors aiming for long-term growth beyond the U.S. equity market may find emerging markets and non-U.S. developed markets compelling due to their valuations, robust growth…
MSCI World Sector/Style Valuations Elevated P/E ratios in most MSCI World sectors—when compared to historical averages—indicate strong investor optimism fueled by positive earnings expectations and favorable macroeconomic conditions. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Indexed Return of Cyclicals vs. Defensives and Consensus Forward 4-Quarter U.S. GDP Growth The relative performance of cyclicals compared to defensives reflects market expectations of substantial real U.S. GDP growth. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment…
S&P 500 Earnings Revision Breadth The S&P 500 earnings revision breadth soaring highlights broad-based optimism, stronger-than-expected earnings results, and upward revisions pushing the index to record levels. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuations – Spread of S&P 500 Minus S&P 500 Equal Weight The significant valuation gaps between the cap-weighted and equal-weighted S&P 500 result from the high valuations and growth expectations of large companies, which emphasize…
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. The U.S. Leading Economic Index (LEI) declined by 0.1% in July, suggesting some economic weakening ahead. Image: The Conference Board